Schroder gaining on Williams in NBA Sixth Man race

The NBA Sixth Man of the Year race is heating up.

Lou Williams is Mr. Sixth Man. He has won the award the last two seasons and in three of the last five. Williams is the favorite this season, but Dennis Schroder is quickly closing in. Montrezl Harrell is also in the mix, which leaves this award wide open for the last two months of the season.

Schroder has moved his odds since November, when he was +2000. On Feb. 14 he was +175 and now he sits at +150. The surprising success of the Oklahoma City Thunder, following the loss of Russell Westbrook, has been aided by Schroder's contributions.

The numbers don't lie

Schroder is averaging 18.8 points, 3.8 rebounds, 4.0 assists, and 0.7 steals per game this season. He also is shooting 47% from the field. Only five guards in the league who have played at least 1,800 minutes this season have a field-goal percentage at that mark or higher.

Another important statistic is the win/loss record the Thunder has accomplished with Schroder being a key contributor. The Thunder are 35-19 when he plays more than 25 minutes in the game. Of players who play at least 20 minutes per game, Schroder is 29th in the league with a +246 plus/minus number. No one else on the list of Sixth Man of the Year candidates is inside the top 30.

Clippers' sixth/seventh man?

This award is titled “Sixth Man of the Year,” yet two of the top three contenders come from the same team. The Los Angeles Clippers have both Williams and Harrell. So who is the Clippers’ real sixth man?

Williams averages slightly more minutes per game, at 29.6 compared to 28.0 for Harrell. Williams also has a slight lead in points per game (19.2 to 18.7) and rebounds/assists per game (9.0 to 8.8).

Being on the same team could hinder their chances to win the award. Both players find themselves with a worse plus/minus than Schroder, even though their team's records are 29-15 (Harrell) and 28-16 (Williams) when they play more than 25 minutes in a game.

Other contenders

Derrick Rose is the only other contender with odds in the same hemisphere as the top three choices. Rose is currently averaging 18.1 points, 5.6 assists, 2.4 rebounds, and 0.8 steals on a struggling Detroit Pistons squad. He is also shooting 49% from the field. The big problem is his team is 11-24 when he plays more than 25 minutes in a game. He also has a plus/minus of -84.

The one longshot to look at would be Goran Dragic at +5000. The Heat has surprised this season in the East, much like the Thunder has surprised in the West.

The Heat are 27-14 when Dragic hits at least the 25-minute mark in a game. Since the All-Star break, he is averaging 18.0 points, 5.3 assists, and 3.7 rebounds per game. If he continues to improve and the Heat continue their winning ways, Dragic could be a contender for the award.

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