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Spurs vs. Mavericks: The best player prop bets for Oct. 28

Dallas Mavericks guard Luka Doncic (77) brings the ball up the court during an NBA game between the Dallas Mavericks and the Los Angeles Lakers. (Photo by Jevone Moore/Icon Sportswire)

Rory Breasail

October 28th, 2021

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Tonight the Dallas Mavericks try to follow up their win against the Houston Rockets with a victory over their other Texas rival, the San Antonio Spurs.

Dallas recently made headlines when they became the first NBA team to play a full 15-man rotation in their last outing against the Rockets. While framed as an act aimed at building team camaraderie, it's another peculiar coaching move by Jason Kidd, who has already faced criticism for how the Mavericks have looked on offense to start the year. The Spurs, meanwhile, will try to bounce back from their heartbreaking OT loss to the Los Angeles Lakers on Tuesday.

The game tips off at 8:30 p.m. ET, and we have the three best player prop bets below.

LUKA DONCIC OVER/UNDER 30.5 POINTS

Luka, like most of the Mavericks, is off to a slow start on the offensive end. Dallas seems to be drifting around the court at times, not making decisive cuts and going through the motions on actions that produce few advantages. As a result, Luka is often being asked to create something out of nothing at the end of the clock - a tough way to make a living even for a player of his caliber.

Cook ‘em chef 👨‍🍳 #MFFL pic.twitter.com/3g8trl45yL

— Dallas Mavericks (@dallasmavs) October 27, 2021

So far Doncic has seen a sharp decrease in his free throws over last year, which is hurting his overall production. Additionally, he’s shooting just 21.7% from 3 on 7.7 attempts, after managing a respectable 35% from there last season.

The Spurs may not have the talent of a playoff team, but they still possess a hellacious defense, particularly with Jakob Poeltl in the game. Poeltl has been one of the league's most underrated rim protectors for a few years now, and with Luka struggling with the long ball, he may be dismayed to find out how hard it will be to score at the rim against this team. Given that Luka has only been averaging 23.7 points so far this season, the Under is a strong bet here.

PICK: UNDER 30.5 Points (-113)


DEJOUNTE MURRAY OVER/UNDER 17.5 POINTS 

With the departure of DeMar DeRozan, the San Antonio Spurs are in experimentation mode. A different player has led the team in scoring through all four games, with Keldon Johnson leading overall with 18.3 points per game. Gregg Popovich is clearly trying to see what he has in this young group, which means who the offense is going to run through and to what extent is not going to be consistent night-to-night.

20 PTS | 12 REB | 15 AST

Fifth career triple-double for @DejounteMurray. Fourth most in franchise history. @FrostBank | #PorVida pic.twitter.com/BffKYQcxDo

— San Antonio Spurs (@spurs) October 27, 2021

While hopes were high that Dejounte Murray would come in as the scoring alpha for San Antonio, so far he’s actually averaging fewer points per game than last season despite playing more minutes. He might yet break out as the Spurs overall leading scorer, but it seems unlikely to happen against Dallas.

PICK: UNDER 17.5 POINTS (-113)


TIM HARDAWAY JR. OVER/UNDER 2.5 3-POINT FIELD GOALS MADE

Some guys are just born shooters. Tim Hardaway Jr. is one of them. While the rest of the Mavs seem to be feeling some uncertainty adapting to Kidd’s new offense, Hardaway is off to another blistering start from the outside.

Whole lotta threes from @T_HardJR 💦💦💦 pic.twitter.com/9jyCMcqjnG

— Dallas Mavericks (@dallasmavs) October 24, 2021

Through four games, Hardaway is shooting 45.8% from 3 on 8.0 attempts per game. Hardaway developed a nice chemistry with Luka last year and has really improved as an off-ball player and movement shooter. It makes them a deadly pair, and it makes the Over here an easy bet.

PICK: OVER 2.5 3-POINt FIELD GOALS MADE (-180)

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