Suns vs. Bucks: The best player prop bets for Game 3

The Phoenix Suns are on a rampage. They are 14-4 in the playoffs and are looking to push their lead over the Bucks to an insurmountable 3-0. The Bucks have cause for hope though, as "The Greek Freak” also turned in one of the greatest NBA Finals performances of all time, including scoring more points in a Finals quarter than anyone since Michael Jordan nearly 30 years ago.

Still, the Suns seem to be getting contributions from up and down the roster while the Bucks players outside of Giannis are rife with inconsistency. Will enough Milwaukee players step up to make this a series? Or will Phoenix functionally end it tonight?

Game 3 is at 8:00 p.m. ET on Sunday, July 11 on ABC. We have odds and picks for our three favorite player props below.

KHRIS MIDDLETON OVER/UNDER POINTS 24.5 POINTS

Khris Middleton is a confounding player. At his apex, he’s the do-it-all wing that every team dreams of, but far too often he disappears during crucial games. To wit, Middleton has yet to take a single free throw so far in the series. That is a damning stat, but not one that properly reflects his offensive aggressiveness. Middleton could easily have shot free throws on multiple possessions, particularly in Game 1. I just don’t think it’s possible that Middleton will be denied at the free throw line for a third game running, and with reps at the line, comes rhythm on other parts of the court.

Middleton has also been a much better player at home than on the road in the playoffs. As noted by writer Jackson Frank, Middleton at home is averaging 24.0 points on 60% true shooting, but that plummets to 22.4 points on 50% true shooting on the road. 

Giannis is a titan, Middleton just needs to play to his capabilities.

PICK: OVER 24.5 POINTS

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JRUE HOLIDAY OVER/UNDER 1.5 3-POINT FIELD GOALS MADE

Jrue Holiday is an All-World defensive player and has played brilliant games on that end of the court throughout the playoffs. However, the Bucks traded away their future because they thought they were getting a two-way player, a ball-handler, and a true off-ball scoring threat. And that’s where Holiday falls short.

Holiday has shot so poorly that he’s drawing comparisons to the player he replaced, Eric Bledsoe, who was shipped out of town for his own shortcomings in the playoffs.

In Game 2, Holiday went 7-21 from the field, and a pair of those makes were late in the game when the outcome was all but decided.

Holiday is shooting less than 29% from 3 for the entire playoffs, 41.2% from the field overall, and even his free throw percentage has dipped into the 60's. And unlike Middleton, his improvement at home is fairly modest.

When Holiday did find success, it was by muscling in and attacking the basket. He’s even been able to back down Chris Paul a number of times. With his outside shot so consistently inconsistent, I expect he’ll prioritize scoring inside over everything else in Game 3.

PICK: UNDER 1.5 3-POINT FIELD GOALS MADE

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JAE CROWDER OVER/UNDER 3-POINT FIELD GOALS MADE

The Bucks have tried multiple pick and roll coverages against the Suns, and through two games look best in their traditional drop defense that defends the rim at all costs. Over the Budenholzer tenure, Milwaukee has been successful because they have walled off the paint and conceded a higher volume of 3’s per game to the opposition. As a math problem, it’s one they usually win. Not so much against the Suns. In Game 2, the Suns went 20-40 from deep. More damning? They allowed 17 corner 3 attempts, and the Suns made 10 of them. 

But the reasoning was sound. They fouled way too much in the first two games and weren’t taking away anything that Phoenix wanted to do. While giving up that many corner 3’s to a team like Phoenix is certain death, a lot of those were on broken plays or happened when they went away from their base defense.

So the Bucks are going to give up 3’s, but they’ll adjust by taking away the corner as much as possible in Game 3. Enter Crowder, who makes his living by taking above the break 3-pointers.

Per Cleaning the Glass, In both the regular season and continuing through the playoffs, three-quarters of Crowder’s shot attempts come from beyond the arc. And he is in the 98% percentile among wings in percentage of his shots that come as above the break 3’s. Not only that, but Crowder is a road warrior. He’s shooting 46.3% from deep on the road on 6.8 attempts per game, compared to 27.1 on 5.9 attempts at home.

The Bucks' defensive adjustments and Crowder's tendencies suggest he should have a monster shooting night in Game 3.

PICK: OVER 2.5 3-POINT FIELD GOALS MADE