Suns vs. Clippers: Game 6 betting odds, preview, and pick

The Los Angeles Clippers refuse to say die.

Down 3-1 in the NBA's Western Conference Finals, without starting center Ivica Zubac and still without Kawhi Leonard on the road against the red-hot Phoenix Suns, they gutted it out and came away with win in Game 5 on Monday.

"Playoff P" — Paul George — was in full effect. He played the finest game of his career when it mattered most. The Suns were out of sorts all night, as role players and stars struggled in equal measure against the Clippers’ defensive schemes.

Game 6 will see the action return to Staples Center, and the Clippers will attempt to force Game 7. Tip-off is at 9 p.m. ET on ESPN. We have odds and our pick for Game 6 below.

Paul George delivers

George has had an incredible run in the playoffs, which has silenced his (many) critics. Even when he struggled from the field, he had an impact on every game in this series. Then, in Game 5, everything that came off his fingertips looked perfect. He shot 15-of-20 from the field, on the way to 41 points, which smashed a playoff record for efficiency.

George didn’t do it by himself, but the Clippers don’t have a chance in Game 6 without his playmaking and scoring prowess. Another performance like that would go a long way to rewrite the narrative that has formed around PG. He is, to quote Zach Lowe of ESPN, "a boss."

Tyronn Lue’s clutch coaching

Tyronn Lue is now 12-2 in elimination games, the best mark among coaches in NBA history. And that is no accident. Lue sometimes earns ire for haphazard lineups and starting series with extended bench minutes, but that all plays into Lue’s long-term strategy to optimize his team composition. 

Lue isn’t afraid to make in-game adjustments, either, a hallmark of effective playoff coaching. NBA stars are simply too good to show them a consistent coverage, and the best teams (and coaches) know when to mix things up. So, when the Clippers opened the game playing small ball and mixing in a zone, it flummoxed Phoenix.

In all likelihood, Lue knew going small would be the only way to defeat the Suns, but it was impractical to fully commit to it, off a six-game slog against the Jazz and a seven-round prize fight against the Mavericks. Nicolas Batum and Marcus Morris were clearly banged up, and the latter more or less limped around the court during the first two games. 

It is never good to lose a player as productive as Zubac, but his MCL strain coincided with Morris and Batum looking healthier than they have in several games. With those two unlocked, the Clippers could play just good enough defense while they rain hellfire on offense.

Deandre Ayton’s impact erased

The biggest effect of downsizing was that Deandre Ayton, who had been the best Suns’ player through four games, was completely erased in Game 5.

Ayton only managed 10 points on nine shot attempts in 36 minutes of action. For all his talents, Ayton is a strictly dependent offensive player, and the Phoenix guards simply could not set him up for anything consistent. Their bread-and-butter, pick-and-roll offense struggled against the zone, and against the switching scheme of L.A., the big man couldn’t punish the Clippers for downsizing.

The Suns' guards are struggling

One of the tradeoffs for the loss of Zubac was a structural inability to contain Suns star Devin Booker. The Clippers’ pairing of Patrick Beverley and Zubac was a formidable tandem against Booker. That, more than any face mask, was the reason for Booker’s stunted production. Even though Beverley continues to shadow his every move, Booker has proven he is comfortable attacking switches and is prepared to feast against lineups that feature DeMarcus Cousins.

When confronted with a zone or with a switch, Booker’s preference is always going to be to attack and score. But switching limits his effectiveness as a playmaker and allows the Clippers to defend him in single coverage. Booker never found any rhythm, outside of spotting up behind the arc, where he was 4-for-6. He was forced into a lot of tough pull-up shots from mid-range, and Morris made his life difficult, as Booker only shot 5-from-16 from inside the arc.

And then there was Chris Paul. The "Point God" has looked merely mortal against the Clippers, as he has since he returned from his "Health and Safety Protocols" absence. While has on fire in the playoffs to that point, his numbers in this series are almost unbelievably bad. He has shot 30.6% from the field and 12.5% from three-point range. He was 0-for-6 from deep in Game 5 and repeatedly hurt his team when he tried to accentuate contact for foul calls instead of playing defense. It was an uncharacteristic and damaging performance from CP3.

The Clippers have found something on defense, which has all three of the Suns’ best players struggling. With George looking more comfortable than ever and their role players buoyed by home court, I like the Clippers to take Game 6.

Pick: Clippers -0.5 (-110)

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Featured player prop: Reggie Jackson over 20.5 points and Clippers win, including overtime

During a coach’s interview between quarters in Game 5, Monty Williams noted Phoenix would look to double George and force the ball out of his hands, as he continued his torrid shooting performance.

Expect the Suns to put that sort of pressure on George soon after tip-off in Game 6, which will leave it to the other Clippers to shoulder more of the scoring burden.

Nobody has been more reliable for the Clippers this postseason than Reggie Jackson. Jackson has averaged 20.5 points in the series and has had more than 20 points in three of the five games against the Suns.

With Williams determined to slow George, Jackson should hit this Over in this Clippers victory.