Team USA vs. Australia: Olympic semifinal betting odds and preview

Team USA got off to a rocky start on their quest for Olympic gold. Not only did they drop two games in the exhibitions, they were also trounced by Evan Fournier and France in the group stage. Panic levels were rising, and there was a fair amount of finger-pointing among coaches, players, and management.

But winning cures all. And after the U.S. survived a 38 point barrage by Ricky Rubio against Spain on Monday night, the Americans look once more to have found their groove. And a good thing too, because they have a date with a formidable Australian squad in the semifinal.

Is there value to betting the Australian side? Or is the star power of Team USA simply too much?

Australia vs. USA tips off on Thursday, Aug. 5, and we have betting odds and our game preview below.

Team USA SURVIVES FIBA RUBIO

Team USA beat Spain in the quarter-finals 95-81, but it wasn’t as easy as that final score might look. The U.S. struggled mightily from the perimeter in the first half going 4-17 and trailed by 10 points in the second quarter. Rubio was the best player on the court in his minutes, and it took second-half heroics by Kevin Durant and Jayson Tatum to ultimately pull away.

Spain was the No. 2 ranked team in the world, and perhaps the greatest obstacle to a USA gold (other than Slovenia riding a red-hot Luka Doncic). Team USA struggled in many of the same ways they did in their loss against France, getting killed on the boards and settling for too many 3’s when shots weren’t falling.

But for all that, they didn’t devolve into isolation basketball, and were moving, cutting, and passing effectively to break down Spain's defense. Team USA has clearly found its groove on offense, and if that holds, the U.S. will be unstoppable.

AUSTRALIA’S QUEST TO MEDAL

“The Boomers” as the Australian team are affectionately known, have never medalled at the Olympics. Australia has participated in 15 Olympics, and has finished an agonizing fourth place on four different occasions. In order to guarantee an end to that drought, the Boomers will have to hit another milestone - beating the U.S. in Olympic competition for the first time. But they should feel some confidence, having bested Team USA in exhibition, and because they are one of the more experienced international squads remaining in the tournament.

The Australians are coming off an impressive 97-56 victory over Argentina. Australia led by six points at the half, then rattled off a 56-to-23 run over the final 20 minutes.

And unlike Spain, whose best years are in the past, Australia has a solid mix of youth (Dante Exum, Matisse Thybulle) and experience (Patty Mills, Joe Ingles).

HOW Team USA AND AUSTRALIA MATCH UP

Australia is missing Ben Simmons, who would likely be their best player. They’re also without center Aron Baynes, lost to injury earlier in the tournament.  But they still have significant NBA-level talent, particularly on the perimeter.

Australia's captain, and the engine that makes them go, is none other than newly-minted Brooklyn Nets point guard Patty Mills. Much like with Rubio, Mills becomes a beast in international play. Incredibly, he led all scorers in both the 2012 and 2016 Olympic Games.

Mills is a deadly shooter, who works diligently to get open off the ball. That creates issues because Damian Lillard has not had a strong defensive tournament so far. Mills will get hot if he gets loose, and Team USA is short on point guard-sized stoppers. Team USA will be relying on Jrue Holiday to slow him down.

Joe Ingles showed in the playoffs that age has begun to catch up with him. Once a stout defensive wing-stopper, he no longer has the foot speed to hang with the NBA’s elite - and Kevin Durant is the elite of the elite. But Ingles is still a creative playmaker and strong 3-point shooter himself, having led the NBA in true shooting percentage during the 2020-21 NBA season.

Matisse Thybulle will be the best wing defender the U.S. has played in the tournament, and Dante Exum isn't far behind him. Last season was only Thybulle’s second in the league and he made Second-Team All-Defense. This incarnation of Team USA lives on the perimeter, and Australia has the athleticism and commitment at multiple wing positions to make that a difficult prospect. Obviously, the U.S. has incredible shot-making talent, but it's evident that some star players struggle to find rhythm in a national team environment where their touches drop to role-player levels.

Overall, I expect this to be a close game. I like Australia with the points.

TOKYO 2020 OLYMPICS SEMIFINAL PICK: Australia +11.5 (-110)