Timberwolves favored in Game 5 of WCF but history not on their side

The West has yet to be won, with the Minnesota Timberwolves looking to crawl their way out of a 3-1 hole, and the odds are in their favor in Game 5 of the Western Conference Finals. However, history is not on their side when it comes to winning the series.

Minnesota is listed as a 4.5-point home favorite after Anthony Edwards and Co. beat the Dallas Mavericks on the road in Game 4 in a 105-100 thriller to avoid a four-game sweep. Now the Timberwolves return to Target Center on Thursday night and look to become the first team in NBA history to win a best-of-seven series after trailing 3-0.

In the history of the Association, 155 teams have attempted to come back from a 3-0 deficit in a best-of-seven series, and all 155 have failed. The Wolves are hoping to break the streak as team No. 156.

When Minnesota halted Dallas' run in the Western Conference Finals on Tuesday night, the Wolves became the 61st team to prevent a sweep by winning Game 4. But Game 5 is more than likely where it all will end, despite Minnesota entering as a 4.5-point favorite.

Of the 60 previous teams who won Game 4 after trailing 3-0 in the series, only 15 have won Game 5. And to narrow it down further, four of those 15 teams were playing at home in the fifth game of the series.

Should Minnesota win on Thursday, history is even more inauspicious for the Timberwolves. Just four of 35 teams that went down 3-0 in the Conference Finals have made it to Game 6.

Looking exclusively at the Western Conference Finals in the past decade, there have been three four-game sweeps, two by the Golden State Warriors (2017, 2019) and one by the Denver Nuggets on their way to last year's NBA title.

Just two Western Conference Finals dating back to 2014 have gone to Game 7 — in 2016 and 2018 — and there have been a pair of Western Conference Finals that ended in Game 6, in 2014 and 2021.

There were two instances in the last decade of a team halting a sweep in Game 4. In 2015, the Houston Rockets beat the Warriors in the fourth game of the series after going down 3-0, and in 2022 the Dallas Mavericks won Game 4 after trailing the Warriors 3-0. In both instances, Golden State ended the series in Game 5. 

How the Wolves stack up in 2024

Thus far in the 2024 NBA Playoffs, the Timberwolves are 3-0 in closeout games. Aside from Tuesday night's Game 4 victory, Minnesota also won Games 6 and 7 against Denver in the Western Conference semifinals to avoid being eliminated in the postseason.

The Wolves defense has cranked up in elimination games, as well, with a 90.4 defensive rating compared to a 114.6 defensive rating in their other postseason games in 2024. On Tuesday night, Minnesota held Dallas to 100 points, which was 7.4 points below the Mavs' playoff average. In the Wolves' series with Denver, they allowed 70 points in Game 6 and 90 in Game 7.

While history is not on Minnesota's side when it comes to winning the Western Conference Finals after falling into a 3-0 hole — or even winning Game 5, for that matter — the best play for Thursday may be to bet the Under on Dallas' total points.

The Over/Under is currently set at 102.5 for Dallas and with the Mavs on the road in a hostile environment, points will be tougher to come by. Dallas' rookie center Dereck Lively II is also likely to miss a second straight game, giving Minnesota an added edge. The Wolves were the best defensive team in the NBA during the regular season, and you can expect them to play like it on Thursday night as they try to keep their playoff hopes alive.