USA vs. France: Tokyo 2020 Olympics men's basketball preview and pick

The U.S. team begins their attempt to win a fourth straight Olympic gold medal early Sunday morning, as they face off against a formidable French team in the first game of group A. The U.S. will be looking to avenge their World Cup loss to France in 2019, and continue to develop team cohesion in Tokyo.

While the U.S. team are heavy favorites, is there value to be had betting the French to cover? Or will the Americans resume their usual dominant play? 

Sunday’s matchup begins at 8:00 a.m. ET on NBC. Our preview for the game, as well as odds and picks, are below.

THE U.S. TEAM’S SHAKY CHEMISTRY

The U.S. team’s early attempts to build their collective chemistry were marred by interruptions. With the unexpected loss of both Bradley Beal and Kevin Love, the team moved to add Javale McGee and Keldon Johnson as replacements. McGee and Johnson have had little time to practice and learn their new teammates' tendencies before the games begin. 

On top of that, Zach LaVine and Jerami Grant both missed time while held out in Health and Safety Protocols. And further, three of their core players have yet to play a single second on the U.S. team, as Khris Middleton, Jrue Holiday, and Devin Booker are about to share what must be one of the most awkward transcontinental flights of all time as they rush to join the rest of the Americans in Tokyo now that the NBA Finals have concluded.

The U.S. were outplayed by inferior talent in two of their four exhibition games, but they seemed to be getting more comfortable as their time in Las Vegas neared the end. With all the additional turnover, one should expect them to take a small step back as they work to integrate Holiday, Middleton, and Booker.

The U.S. will be relying on their talent advantage, which is significant, even more so in these early games than normal. It should not shock anyone if they are out of sorts throughout the first half against France.

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HOW GOOD ARE FRANCE?

France enter the tournament ranked seventh in the world, narrowly behind the likes of Greece and Serbia. They have a significant amount of NBA talent on the roster, including the reigning Defensive Player of the Year Rudy Gobert and wings Nicolas Batum and Evan Fournier. They also have complimentary specialist players like Frank Ntilikina and Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot, and their starting point guard Nando De Colo had a cup of coffee in the NBA a few years back.

Astute fans will recall that it was the French National Team that knocked the U.S. squad out of the World Cup two years ago. And those who remember the previous Summer Olympics will also note that the U.S. barely held off the French team to win 100-97 on their way to gold. But while there is a good amount of continuity between those French teams and this one, the turnover on the American side is so great there’s little to be gleaned by recapping those games too much.

France and the U.S. have played six times in prior Olympics, and the U.S. are undefeated in those matchups. Gregg Popovich will no doubt want to avenge their World Cup defeat to France more than anyone and to undo the inconsistency of his international head coaching tenure to date.

While France are a good team, they have not looked particularly steady in their own recent play, with exhibition losses to Spain and Japan in the lead up to the games. While dropping a game to Spain was not cause for alarm, they also lost a game to host country Japan, who were major underdogs.

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FRANCE’S GREATEST STRENGTH

While France does not have elite shot creation anywhere approaching what the U.S. has, what France does figure to have is an incredibly stout defense.

Gobert is a titan on the defensive end, and the FIBA rules only magnify his effectiveness. While his NBA season ended in a disappointing loss to the Los Angeles Clippers, his supposed lack of mobility at the NBA level is drastically overstated, and he covers enormous ground as a help defender for the Jazz.

Utah struggled because their guards and wings couldn’t contribute enough to maximize Rudy’s paint deterrence. With the likes of Frank Ntilikina and Nicolas Batum roaming the perimeter, France will not have the same issue.

NBA fans outside of New York City might be unfamiliar with Ntilikina. While he has major question marks as an offensive player, he has proven to be an elite man-to-man cover, and his performance in the World Cup against Kemba Walker was key to France winning that game.

Nicolas Batum underwent a renaissance this season, becoming perhaps the third most valuable player for the Clippers in the playoffs. He’s shown great defensive versatility, is a nice complementary playmaker, and spaces the floor well.

Evan Fournier is France’s premier offensive weapon, and a proficient shot creator and jump shooter. While overmatched as a lead creator at the NBA level, Gobert's roll gravity makes everyone’s job on the French team easier, just as he does for Utah. And Fournier is more than capable of getting hot from deep.

It goes without saying that the U.S. team should win this game, but their lack of practice time and chemistry as well as France's cohesive defense will make them a stiff first opponent. 

TOKYO OLYMPICS 2020 BASKETBALL PICK: FRANCE +12.5