Western Conference Finals cause sudden shift in NBA Finals MVP odds

As the NBA Conference Finals heat up, so too has the competition for NBA Finals MVP.

In the East, the No. 3 seed Milwaukee Bucks and star forward Giannis Antetokounmpo (the +115 favorite to win MVP) have taken firm control in their series with the fifth-seeded Atlanta Hawks.

After Trae Young (+3000) and Atlanta stole Game 1 in Milwaukee, the Bucks responded with a blowout victory, behind Antetokounmpo’s 25 points, nine rebounds, and six assists. In Game 3, the Bucks claimed a decisive win in Atlanta, with the help of Khris Middleton’s game-high 38 points.

Middleton moving up the odds board

Ahead of the Eastern Conference Finals, Middleton drew +3000 odds to claim Finals MVP, but that number has moved to +1200.

In addition to his 38 points in Game 3, the veteran forward added 11 rebounds and seven assists. He also shot an impressive 15-of-26 from the field, including 6-of-12 from behind the three-point arc.

While that performance put Middleton in the MVP discussion, Antetokounmpo continues to prove he is the key cog.

He has posted a double-double in every game of the 2021 NBA Playoffs, except for Game 2 of the current series, when he played just 29 minutes and racked up a team-high 25 points and nine rebounds.

On Atlanta, Young is the unequivocal leader, but the Hawks' chances of reaching the NBA Finals series appear bleaker by the day.

The Hawks own +2500 odds to win the NBA Finals. The Bucks are the -114 favorite to collect a championship, while the Phoenix Suns are the second choice at +160, followed by the Los Angeles Clippers at +800.

Ayton, Jackson emerge as MVP longshot plays in West

In the West, players have seen much more fluctuation in their NBA Finals MVP odds.

Ahead of Game 5 of the Western Conference Finals, Suns point guard Devin Booker had +240 odds to win the award. Those odds jumped up to +320 when the Clippers forced Game 6 on Monday night.

Chris Paul, who missed the first two games of the series while in COVID-19 health and safety protocols, is now a +500 choice to win MVP.

The 11-time NBA All-Star scored 15, 18, and 22 points over the past three games and has averaged nine assists in the series.

Booker, who broke his nose in Game 2, during a collision with Clippers guard Patrick Beverley, has averaged 26.2 points, 5.6 rebounds, and 4.8 assists in the series.

While Booker has made the best case for MVP of his squad during the Western Conference Finals, Suns center Deandre Ayton has surfaced as a longshot (+2200) play.

After he led Phoenix in scoring (18 points) and rebounding (nine) in a Game 3 loss in LA, he turned in a monster performance in the paint, with 22 rebounds and four blocked shots in an 84-80 Game 4 victory.

For the series, he has averaged 18.2 points and 13 rebounds.

For the Clippers, Paul George has stepped up as the No. 1 guy in L.A., while Kawhi Leonard remains sidelined with an undisclosed knee injury.

George has led his team in scoring in every game of the Western Conference Finals and has averaged 30.2 points. In the fourth and fifth games, he also led the way in rebounding and assists.

His MVP odds ballooned to +3000 ahead of Game 5 but are back down to +900 heading into Game 6.

The Clippers player next on the MVP odds board is Reggie Jackson, at +8000. The point guard is averaging 21.8 points per game, along with 4.4 rebounds and 2.8 assists, but it's difficult to imagine voters handing him the award over George.

The seven-time All-Star has carried his team on his back in the absence of Leonard and would undoubtedly merit MVP should the Clippers win the title.

George is worth a look at +900, but your best bet for MVP, at this point in the playoffs, is Antetokounmpo in the East or Booker in the West.