Who will win NBA Defensive Player of the Year?

As we head out of the All-Star break, it's time to start looking at some end-of-season award odds. The NBA Defensive Player of the Year race is one to keep an eye on. Anthony Davis is a heavy favorite at -280, but that leaves plenty of value to go around if you are wagering against him.

The two-time defending winner of this award, Rudy Gobert, is also having a phenomenal season. Let's look at the contenders and find some value picks.

Anthony Davis (Los Angeles Lakers)

Davis has not won this award in his previous seven seasons in the league. He is currently averaging 9.2 rebounds, 1.6 steals, and 2.4 blocks per game. Those individual statistics are not even his best in a season, and he did not win the award with better stats.

However, this award is about more than just individual numbers. The Lakers rank fourth in defensive rating and seventh in points allowed per game. Davis is a key part of that, as he is the best defender and rim protector on the team.

Rudy Gobert (Utah Jazz)

Gobert is averaging 14.6 rebounds, 0.7 steals, and 1.9 blocks per game. In his previous two Defensive POY seasons, Gobert averaged fewer rebounds, the same number of steals, and slightly more blocks per game.

The Jazz are ranked ninth in defensive rating and sixth in points allowed per game. Gobert is a defensive leader and scares opposing players from entering the paint.

Giannis Antetokounmpo (Milwaukee Bucks)

The Greek Freak is clearly in the running for this award, but MVP is the true prize for him. Antetokounmpo is averaging 13.5 rebounds, 1.1 steals, and 1.1 blocks per game.

The Bucks are first in defensive rating and eighth in points allowed per game. His teammate Brook Lopez is a longshot contender for this award at +8000. The fact that Antetokounmpo is likely to win MVP diminishes his chances for Defensive Player of the Year.

The rest of the pack

Every other contender for this award is a longshot. Joel Embiid is +2000 and Ben Simmons is +2500. Marcus Smart falls in at +4500, followed by Kawhi Leonard at +6000. Leonard won the award consecutively, in 2014-15 and 2015-16. He is having a successful season, but the Clippers rely more on team defense with Patrick Beverley, Marcus Morris, and Montrezl Harrell.

Smart is a decent longshot selection, considering the Celtics are third in both defensive rating and points allowed per game. Smart averages 1.6 steals per game and typically guards the opposing team's best scorer.

Embiid and Simmons share the spotlight on the same team, which makes it extremely difficult for one to shine. Simmons gets the steals, Embiid gets the blocks, and both share the rebounds.

The defense rests

I like Davis to win Defensive Player of the Year, if I am just looking at it politically and not looking at odds. He has never won the award, he is on a great team with great team defense, and he is the defensive leader.

However, the numbers and odds are pointing me to Gobert. Gobert is fourth in blocks per game, second in rebounds per game, fifth in defensive rebound percentage, 13th in block percentage, sixth in defensive rating, and second in defensive win shares in the NBA. No one else in the league is that widespread near the top of so many defensive categories.

NBA free pick: Rudy Gobert

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