Broncos vs. Browns: The best quarterback prop bets for TNF

Thursday Night Football is meant to be the perfect way to kick start your weekend early – a night of thrilling, top quality, high scoring professional football. Unfortunately, that may not be the case this week.

The Cleveland Browns’ injury ward is busier than the local Irish bar on St. Patrick’s Day, with Baker Mayfield, Nick Chubb, and Kareem Hunt all missing, while Jarvis Landry and Odell Beckham Jr. are both doubtful as well. Meanwhile, the Broncos are having to travel on a short week after going 0-3 in October.

It looks set to be a slugfest, and the game has the lowest points spread of the entire NFL slate this week.

Teddy Bridgewater himself is banged up with a foot injury off the back of the defeat to the Raiders last weekend, but he's planning to suit up after logging limited practice sessions throughout the week.

We've examined the matchup closely, and have the three best quarterback prop bets for Thursday Night Football below.

Most Passing Yards: Teddy Bridgewater vs. Case Keenum

With Mayfield on the shelf, the Browns will be relying on Case Keenum this week and the situation is far from ideal. It’s a short week so he won’t have had long to prepare with the team, he’s down his leading two running backs, and his top two wide receivers are banged up.

Now he faces a Broncos teams that give up the ninth fewest passing yards per game to opposing teams.

That’s no easy feat, and while the Browns' defense has had similar success this season, the chances of Teddy throwing for more yards are far greater. Courtland Sutton, Noah Fant, and Tim Patrick give Bridgewater a trio of talented wide receivers to aim for, and Teddy has thrown for 622 yards in his last two games.

Bridgewater’s stat line suggests he averages 252 yards per game, but if you remove the loss to the Baltimore Ravens in which he only played half the offensive snaps, that number jumps to 290 yards per game. Meanwhile, the Broncos' defense gives up an average of just 59 plays a game to the opposition (ranking fifth in the NFL), and the Browns have a run-first approach which will limit Keenum’s numbers.

While it is tempting to bet on Bridgewater to throw for more than his current line of 231.5 yards in the match, the smarter play is to back him to simply throw for more yards than Keenum.

Pick: Bridgewater to have the most passing yards (-137)

Teddy Bridgewater Over/Under 19.5 Pass Completions

Bridgewater has completed at least 19 passes in each game this season in which he has been under center for the entire game. Removing the Raiders game, he has thrown an average of 26 completions per match, with Courtland Sutton his favorite weapon.

The Browns allow QBs just 19.5 completions per game this season – the third best record in the NFL – and let their opponents have the ball for an average of 24 minutes per game. That might change on Thursday though, given their huge injury list on offense, and that could mean more playing time for Bridgewater.

Bridgewater completed an average of 23 passes per game last season with the Carolina Panthers, and is on track to beat that number this year with Denver. While defenses may come out on top on Thursday, it would appear Denver is happy for Bridgewater to keep throwing the ball, and he should rack up at least 20 completions.

Pick: Over 19.5 Pass Completions (-118)

Teddy Bridgewater Over/Under 1.5 Touchdown Passes

This is not an easy night to predict what might happen, and we’re certainly not expecting a shootout, but there is value in backing Teddy to throw Over 1.5 touchdown passes. Bridgewater has thrown for at least two touchdowns in four of six games this year, and threw three last week at home to the Raiders.

Despite the Browns' defense and their lofty reputation, Cleveland has given up 84 points to the opposition through the last two games – which would suggest that there are plenty of holes for Bridgewater to aim for.

While the Browns haven’t given up many yards through the air, they have conceded 14 passing touchdowns, with only the Washington Football Team and Indianapolis Colts conceding more. 77% of the Broncos' 13 touchdowns have come through the air, a number that jumps to 80% when you only look at the 10 touchdowns thrown from within the red zone.

This is the kind of game where you’re likely to see more kickers than end zone celebrations, but the value is there for Bridgewater to chuck two or more.

Pick: Over 1.5 Touchdown Passes (+125)