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Broncos vs. Browns: TNF betting odds, preview, and pick

Denver Broncos quarterback Teddy Bridgewater (5) runs with the ball. (Photo by David Rosenblum/Icon Sportswire)

Ashley Anderson

October 18th, 2021

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The Denver Broncos get a short week to try to halt a three-game losing streak, as they visit the Cleveland Browns on Thursday Night Football at FirstEnergy Stadium.

Injuries pile up in Browns' latest loss

The home team is also in the midst of its own winless streak. For the first time in Kevin Stefanski's young head coaching career, Cleveland suffered back-to-back losses, as the team got pummeled by the undefeated Arizona Cardinals, 37-14, in Week 6.

The Browns (3-3) entered the game short-handed, with a number of key injuries, including to running back Nick Chubb (calf), receiver Jarvis Landry (knee), and both starting offensive tackles.

By the end of Sunday's matchup, Cleveland added more names to the injury report.

Running back Kareem Hunt, who ran for 66 yards on 14 carries, was carted off the field in the fourth quarter with a calf issue. Newly healthy Odell Beckham Jr. also briefly left the game with a shoulder injury, while quarterback Baker Mayfield re-injured his left shoulder, which he dislocated in Week 2 against the Houston Texans.

Here’s where Baker Mayfield apparently got hurt

pic.twitter.com/EzW4HjVusI

— Antwan V. Staley (@antwanstaley) October 17, 2021

Mayfield turned the ball over three times, including two fumbles and an interception.

The Cardinals (6-0) played without head coach Kliff Kingsbury, quarterbacks coach Cam Turner, star linebacker Chandler Jones, plus defensive linemen Zach Allen and Corey Peters, who all tested positive for COVID-19. 

Arizona's depleted roster was still too much for Cleveland. Quarterback Kyler Murray threw for 229 yards on 20-of-30 passing and tied a career high with four touchdown passes against Cleveland's ninth-ranked pass defense (220.7 yards per game).

Bridgewater battles turnovers in lopsided defeat

The Broncos also confronted a team working with a different head coach in Week 6, but that did little to help Denver, who has its own set of injury issues working against it.

In his first game since Jon Gruden resigned from the Las Vegas Raiders last Monday, Derek Carr got off to a swift start. On the team's first possession, he chucked up a 48-yard touchdown pass to Henry Ruggs III, who beat cornerback Ronald Darby in his first game back from injury since Week 1.

The touchdown snapped the Raiders' streak of 11 straight games without a first-possession score (the longest active drought in the NFL).

Carr finished the day with 341 yards and another passing touchdown to running back Kenyan Drake, who also ran for an 18-yard touchdown to open the second half.

#Raiders QB Derek Carr is tearing up the Broncos blitz so far, going 7-of-9 for 178 yards and a TD against the blitz, including his 40-yard throw to Henry Ruggs III that set up their most recent TD, per @ESPNStatsInfo

— Paul Gutierrez (@PGutierrezESPN) October 17, 2021

Denver's offense had the opposite kind of day. Teddy Bridgewater threw for 334 yards and three scores but added a season-high three interceptions and lost a fumble. He was also hit 17 times and sacked five times.

The Broncos' rushing attack posted 112 yards, with 53 of those coming from rookie Javonte Williams and another 50 from veteran back Melvin Gordon.

Tight end Noah Fant and receiver Courtland Sutton both caught for more than 90 yards apiece, but it wasn't enough to overcome Denver's four turnovers and a poor defensive showing, in which the Broncos surrendered a season high in passing yards.

Denver Broncos vs. Cleveland Browns injury report

Denver BroncosCleveland Browns
LB A.J. Johnson: Questionable (chest)
QB Baker Mayfield: Questionable (shoulder)
LB Baron Browning: Questionable (concussion)
CB Kareem Hunt: Questionable (calf)
LB Andre Mintze: Questionable (hamstring)
CB M.J. Stewart: Out (hamstring)
OT Garett Bolles: Questionable (knee)
OT Chris Hubbard: Out (triceps)
DB Mike Ford: Out (knee)
FB Andy Janovich: Out (hamstring)
TE Albert Okwuegbunam: Out (hamstring)
C Nick Harris: Out (hamstring)

Broncos and Browns betting trends

  • Denver is 4-1 ATS in its last five games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in the previous game
  • Cleveland is 2-5 ATS in its last seven games as a home favorite
  • The Under is 5-2 in Denver's last seven road games
  • The Over is 4-1 in Cleveland's last five home games
  • Denver is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings between these teams
  • The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings

Defense will set the tone in Thursday's showdown

Both of these teams are fairly evenly matched on defense, ranking in the top 10 in opponent yards surrendered and rushing yards allowed.

The difference-maker in this contest will be the health of Cleveland's offense, which will struggle to get its ground game going due to injuries to both Chubb and Hunt.

Mayfield's injury status is another concern for the team, which already ranked in the bottom 10 in passing yards per contest.

Denver ranks 13th in that category (250.8 yards per game) and will challenge a defense that has forced the third fewest turnovers (four) in the league.

Cleveland will turn up its pass rush and force Bridgewater to work outside the pocket, but the Broncos will keep this close enough to nearly pull off an upset on the road.

Score prediction: Browns 24, Broncos 21

NFL Week 7 pick: Broncos -4.5

Broncos vs. Browns pick powered by The Quant Edge

Our predictive engine is calling for the Browns to win outright and for the Broncos to cover the spread. The final score is expected to go Over the projected total.

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