Browns' Myles Garrett favored to lead NFL in sacks

The 2021-22 NFL season is just days away, and now is the perfect time to take a final inventory of the many futures markets to decide if there is any value remaining. With so many questions derived from new rosters, normal training camps, and the usual uncertainty of a new season, long odds can be found for the careful cherry picker.

One market that should make for a close and fascinating race is this season’s sacks leader. Cleveland Browns defensive end Myles Garrett is the favorite at +750, but he has plenty of worthy peers close on his heels.

Garrett has yet to finish among the top 5 sacks leaders

Last year’s winner was Pittsburgh Steelers linebacker, T.J. Watt, who tallied 15 sacks. Tampa Bay linebacker, Shaquil Barrett, led the league with 19.5 in 2019. And Los Angeles Rams defensive tackle, Aaron Donald, took the title in 2018 with an incredible 20.5 in 2018 from the interior lineman position.

While admittedly a very small sample size, it's interesting that the most recent winners have not come from the defensive end edge position. It is also worth noting that despite his spectacularly dominant and consistent play over the last three years, Garrett hasn’t cracked the top 5.

The Browns should have an excellent defense at all levels in 2021, and with an improved secondary plus Jadeveon Clowney on his other side, Garrett makes sense as a favorite to finally break through and win the sack title. That being said, in such a wide open race I won’t be looking to take him at relatively short odds.

For value, let’s look further down the list at some players that are physical freaks in their own right, and could easily achieve the highest number of sacks with a few good breaks.

Chase Young's speed and strength are impossible to ignore

The player I’m looking at with the most intrigue is Chase Young, the incredibly athletic defensive end out of Ohio State that the Washington Football Team is looking to build their entire defense around. Young has speed and strength, and in a one-on-one situation can beat nearly any offensive lineman in the league on any given play. Washington was fifth in the NFL in sacks per game last year, and it is because they have playmakers at every spot on the line.

In order to accumulate sacks, a player must have teammates that take up blocks and don’t leave him double-teamed on every down. A player could be the best pass-rusher in league history, but if he faces a double team and a running back chip on nearly every down because of his known exceptionalism, he will not be the one to ultimately bring the quarterback down and cash this particular market ticket.

Young has plenty of help in Washington

In Washington, a front of Daron Payne and Jonathan Williams, with Montez Sweat on the opposite end, is arguably as good as any other in the league. All four are first-round picks.

In addition, the Washington offense won’t be spectacular, as they were just 31st in yards per play in 2020 with their many question marks at quarterback. While Ryan Fitzpatrick should be an upgrade at QB, the defense will still get plenty of time on the field.

Young is poised for a spectacular sophomore season

Young had 16.5 sacks in 12 games his final year at Ohio State, where he admittedly played college lineman, but likewise enjoyed a talent advantage across the entirety of the line. If you were to extend that to a 17-game season Young would be looking at 23 sacks, which is certainly more than enough to lead the league.

Young looks poised to take a massive sophomore leap, and is my pick at +1500 to win this year’s sack title.