Buccaneers vs. Bears: The best betting props for TNF
Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady. (Photo by Cliff Welch/Icon Sportswire)
October 7th, 2020
The rematch is here!
Tom Brady and Nick Foles will rekindle their quarterback matchup from Super Bowl LII, when the unheralded Foles took the Philadelphia Eagles to the championship over Brady and the New England Patriots.
Things have changed a lot since February 2018. Foles is now quarterback of the Chicago Bears, who put forward a particularly odorous offensive effort against the Indianapolis Colts in Week 4. Brady left the Patriots in the offseason and signed with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, giving hope to a franchise that now has designs on winning the NFC South.
Here are our top three prop bets as the Buccaneers travel to Chicago to face the Bears on Thursday Night Football.
Touchdown scorers
The Bears offense looked unstoppable in the fourth quarter against the Atlanta Falcons in Week 3, scoring 20 points to erase a 16-point deficit and win 30-26.
Then again, which offense wouldn’t look great against the Falcons if Atlanta had a fourth-quarter lead?
The Bears were brought back to reality against the Colts last weekend, and the quarterback situation in Chicago is a mess. The Bears have benched Mitch Trubisky, and while Foles did well against Atlanta, he struggled last weekend.
Record in last 5 games as a starting QB:
— NFL on CBS 🏈 (@NFLonCBS) October 5, 2020
Nick Foles: 0-5
Mitch Trubisky: 4-1
Who should be under center for the Bears? pic.twitter.com/09VWcUU3NT
But there may be value within the touchdown props of Thursday night's game.
Bears tight end Jimmy Graham is one of the league leaders in red zone targets, second in the NFL to only Aaron Jones of Green Bay, with seven targets inside the 20-yard line.
He’s also tied for the league lead in targets from within the 10-yard line, with five. Three of those targets have turned into catches, and all three catches have been touchdowns. Graham has a 41% target share within the 10-yard line, and that presents a potential opportunity for bettors.
The Bears offense could be in for another struggle on a short week, but if or when they do get into the red zone, it’s a good bet that Graham will become a target.
Free Pick: Jimmy Graham to score an anytime TD (+250)
Rob Gronkowski receiving yards
One of Tom Brady’s favorite targets in New England could see a bigger role in the Buccaneers offense on Thursday.
The Buccaneers have already ruled out wide receiver Chris Godwin for tomorrow, and fellow wide receiver Mike Evans is questionable. There is also one less tight end on Tampa Bay’s roster with O.J. Howard done for the season with an Achilles injury.
If Evans can’t go Thursday, that should be an opportunity for an increase in targets for Gronkowski.
The Bears' defense has given up an average of 230.5 pass yards per game, and Gronkowski had just one catch for 29 yards last weekend against the Los Angeles Chargers.
But a higher share in targets should equate to a productive evening for Gronkowski. His best outing of the season was back in Week 3 against Denver, when he caught six of seven targets for 48 yards.
.@RobGronkowski just snagged that one.
— Dov Kleiman (@NFL_DovKleiman) October 4, 2020
Brady now has 369 yards passing. pic.twitter.com/2FV2c5hxGO
The total for Gronkowski receiving yards on Thursday is 37.5 at BetAmerica, and with injury concerns in Tampa Bay’s offense, the Over for the veteran tight end looks like a viable option.
Free Pick: Rob Gronkowski Over 37.5 Receiving Yards (-120)
Tom Brady Passing Touchdowns
We couldn’t hype up the Brady vs. Foles storyline without eyeing the Tom Brady passing props available at BetAmerica.
Brady threw five touchdown passes in a comeback win over the Chargers on Sunday, but the Bears' defense could present a more difficult challenge for the future Hall of Fame quarterback.
Chicago's defense has given up only three passing touchdowns all season, and they could limit the Buccaneers' passing attack in the end zone even further if Tampa Bay doesn’t have Godwin and Evans. It’s also tempting after five touchdown tosses in one game to expect a regression, and that could be in store for Brady on Thursday.
The total for Tom Brady Touchdown passes is set at 1.5, with odds on the Under currently +100 at BetAmerica.
It should be a tough matchup for Brady, and there are factors at play that make taking the Under a realistic wager.
Free Pick: Brady Under 1.5 touchdown passes (+100)
Wager on Week 5 of the 2020 NFL season at BetAmerica!
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