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Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert (10) in the pocket. (Photo by Cliff Welch/Icon Sportswire)
December 16th, 2021
Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert has only improved his sophomore season following a fabulous rookie campaign. How will he fare on Thursday night against the Kansas City Chiefs?
We've examined the matchup closely and have the three best player prop bets for Justin Herbert below.
Herbert averaged an incredible 289.1 passing yards in his rookie season, and has improved to 294.0 yards this year. He has thrown for over 300 yards in seven of his 13 games this season.
Herbert also loves to play against Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs. This will be his fourth career matchup, and he is 2-1 in his previous three tries. In those three games, he averaged 298 passing yards per game. He threw for 281 passing yards in his game at Kansas City in September of this year.
Justin Herbert hits Mike Williams for the game-winning touchdown as the Los Angeles Chargers beat the Kansas City Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium, 30-24. pic.twitter.com/xweJepve0p— Arash Markazi (@ArashMarkazi) September 26, 2021
Justin Herbert hits Mike Williams for the game-winning touchdown as the Los Angeles Chargers beat the Kansas City Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium, 30-24. pic.twitter.com/xweJepve0p
The Chiefs defense has vastly improved since that September game, but they still give up a ton of yards through the air. They rank 26th in the NFL in passing defense, allowing 252.0 yards per game. I like Herbert to show out again against Mahomes and put up some big yardage numbers tonight.
Last season, Herbert averaged 39.7 pass attempts per game, although he only averaged 32 attempts per game in the two games against Kansas City. This year, Herbert is averaging 38.8 pass attempts per game and had 38 attempts in the game at Kansas City.
JUSTIN HERBERT THROW OF THE YEAR pic.twitter.com/D8yrfssmKY— PFF (@PFF) December 12, 2021
JUSTIN HERBERT THROW OF THE YEAR pic.twitter.com/D8yrfssmKY
Kansas City's opponents have averaged 35.6 pass attempts per game this season, but that number has steadily increased as the Chiefs have continued to improve and grab early leads. I believe this game will find a similar scenario, where the Chiefs will take an early lead and Herbert will need to keep throwing to stay in the game.
This one is purely playing the law of averages based on our previous two predictions. If each of our two previous predictions hit at the minimum number, then Herbert will throw for 292 yards on 38 attempts. Herbert averages 11.3 yards per completion this season and 11.1 yards per completion on his career.
Based on those averages, he needs 27 pass completions to hit the yardage total. Herbert averages 26.0 pass completions per game this season and he had 26 completions in the September meeting with the Chiefs. Kansas City allows 23.7 pass completions per game this year.
All these numbers culminate to an ever-so-slight advantage to the Over. So now we look at the odds on the Over and the odds on the Under. The Over is +100 and the Under is -130. Since the averages lean towards the Over and it has the better odds, the Over is the clear play here.
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