Colts vs. 49ers: The best player prop bets for SNF

Sunday night sees the 2-4 Colts try to maintain their uptick in momentum as they travel to Levi’s Stadium to take on the 49ers. The home team is on a three-game losing streak and will be looking to Jimmy Garoppolo to get them back on track as he steps in to call the shots with Trey Lance on the shelf.

The 49ers have opened up as 4-point home favorites in this clash as they look to not only end their recent skid, but also improve their record in Levi’s Stadium which is 1-8 since the start of last season. Fans will be hoping the bye week will have given the team plenty of time to prepare for this upcoming match.

The Colts started off 0-3 this year but have turned the corner and are coming off a huge 31-3 beating of the Houston Texans.

With two teams desperate for a win, here are the three best prop bets ahead of primetime football.

Jonathan Taylor Over/Under 61.5 Rushing Yards

JT tore off a monster 83-yard run last week against the Titans as he racked up 145 rushing yards off just 14 carries and added two trips to the end zone. He certainly isn’t going to have it as easy this week – the 49ers have given up an average of just 77 yards per game to running backs this season – but the Colts’ uptick in form has resulted in them leaning on the run game and Taylor should get plenty of work again.

Even if we strip away that huge 83-yard dash last week, Taylor has averaged 65 yards a game at a rate of 4.5 yards per carry. He’s tallied an average of 14.5 carries per game for the Colts and is getting a consistent workload, getting on the field for 65% of offensive snaps against the Texans.

Taylor has at least 50 yards rushing in his last 12 games and has proven he can still do damage against the top teams this year, putting 53 yards on the tough Ravens run defense in Week 5 from 15 touches.

The Colts’ offensive line is a bit beat up, but Taylor is an elite talent and should see another 14+ touches on Sunday which can get him over this line.  

Pick: Over 61.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

Deebo Samuel Over/Under 61.5 Receiving Yards

It has not mattered one iota whether it’s Trey Lance or Jimmy G throwing the football this season, Deebo Samuel has been dominant. Imagine what he could do with a Super Bowl quality QB! In all seriousness, Deebo has been electric, averaging six receptions and 109 yards per game this season, the second best mark in the NFL.

On Sunday, Samuel will face some difficult coverage in the form of Rock Ya-Sin, but the 49ers have had a bye week to prepare and will no doubt have some creative ways to get the ball into the hands of their stud receiver. The Colts have given up an average of 170 yards per game to wide receivers at a rate of 9.1 yards per target.

Deebo himself is averaging a huge 10.5 yards per target this season and hasn’t had a game where he’s received fewer than eight looks from his QB. No matter the opposition, Samuel is set to get another ton of work, with his target share in the last three weeks averaging out at a huge 31%.

With George Kittle on IR, there are even more targets to go around, so expect Samuel to be get at least eight targets again here and putting in another huge performance.     

Pick: Over 61.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

Ross Dwelley Over/Under 2.5 Receptions

Ross Dwelley may not be a household name among many NFL supporters, but the man who is stepping into George Kittle’s shoes is well worth your consideration this week. Replacing the quality of Kittle is a near impossible task, but Dwelley has enough quality to beat this line at a tempting price.

He started the game against Arizona before the bye week and caught both his targets for 25 yards. A solid, if unspectacular showing, but a level of consistency that is clear. Going back to last season when Kittle missed time, there were eight games in which Dwelley was on the field for 50% or more of the offensive snaps. In those eight games he averaged 1.9 receptions a game for 25.5 yards. He was targeted 20 times at an average of 10.2 yards per target.       

That doesn’t necessarily get the juices flowing like Deebo, but there is a floor of reliability there. It gets more interesting when you consider the matchup.

The Colts have struggled against the tight end position this year, giving up 6.17 receptions a game (the seventh highest in the NFL), and 62.3 yards per game (the ninth highest). The 49ers know this, and have had extra time to prepare, so I’m hopeful Dwelley might see even a small uptick in targets which could help land this bet.

Pick: Over 2.5 Receptions (+144)