Detroit Lions 2019 NFL betting preview

Detroit Lions at a glance

2018 record: 6-10, 4th in the NFC North Key additions: RB C.J. Anderson, DE Trey Flowers, TE T.J. Hockenson Key losses: RB LeGarrette Blount, FS Glover Quin, CB Nevin Lawson

Overview

It was a somewhat disappointing campaign in 2018 for the Detroit Lions. After they finished the 2017 season at 9-7, the Lions decided to fire head coach Jim Caldwell with hopes of turning the team into a playoff contender. Instead, first-year head coach Matt Patricia led the team to only six wins and immediately went onto the hot seat. The one bright spot was a Week 3 victory over the New England Patriots.

Defense was not too much of an issue last season for the Lions, but the unit did struggle in the takeaway department. It finished next to last in the NFL with only 14 takeaways. That statistic will need to vastly improve to help an offense that finished 24th in total offense.

The addition of defensive end Trey Flowers should help boost the pass rush, which is the best way to force turnovers in the NFL. Flowers has 21 sacks and has been involved in seven fumbles (forced and recovered) in his past three seasons for the Patriots. The defense also added cornerback Rashaan Melvin, who has four interceptions in his last two seasons.

In an attempt to make changes to a poor offensive attack last season, the Lions hired offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell. Bevell served as the offensive coordinator for the Seattle Seahawks from 2011-17. His offense is more designed to have a strong running game, as he went four straight seasons in that span at Seattle with a top-five rushing offense.

Expect second-year running back Kerryon Johnson to take on a bigger role from last season, when he served as a backup and passing-down back behind LeGarrette Blount. Johnson should be the starter this season, and he definitely deserves the honor. In the three games that Johnson had more than 15 carries last season, he averaged 6.92 yards per carry. For a comparison, fellow rookie and Pro Bowler Saqoun Barkley had eight games with 15 or more carries and only averaged 4.54 yards per carry in those games.

Considering these improvements and a second year under Patricia, what do we think about the Lions' betting odds for the 2019 season?

Super Bowl Odds: +9000

This is a monster longshot. I believe in improvements in this team, but nowhere near this level of gain.

NFC Championship odds: +5000

This ties the best odds in the NFC, so maybe the value is there. However, we need to be realistic, and this asks far too much.

NFC North odds: +1200

I do not hate these odds as a value bet. This is a tough division, but a few injuries here or there and you get 12-1 on a possible division winner.

Odds to make the playoffs: +350

The NFC has a lot of depth, and it will be difficult to make the playoffs at anything fewer than 11 wins. That is a massive task for this club, and I would avoid these odds.

Regular season win total: 6.5

Even though I believe there will be an improvement from last season in terms of on-the-field ability, the schedule does not do the Lions any favors. I predict another 6-10 season, so this number is right on the money. If I had to pick a side, I would take the under.

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