Dolphins vs. Bills: NFL Week 8 betting odds, preview, and pick

The Miami Dolphins will hit the road on Sunday for a key AFC East showdown when they face the Buffalo Bills in Week 8 NFL action.

Dolphins have more questions than answers

After a promising season in 2020, many felt the Dolphins were ready to take a step forward this year. However, as Halloween approaches there are many things for Miami fans to be scared about. The inconsistent play of quarterback Tua Tagovailoa has many fans worried their first-round pick was wasted, and now the Dolphins might be ready to ship multiple first-round selections for Deshaun Watson.

Head coach Brian Flores is under immense pressure after his team has lost six straight games following a win in their season opener. Making matters worse is the fact that those last two defeats came to a previously winless Jacksonville squad and an Atlanta team whose only other wins came against the Jets and Giants.

Miami's defense is a mess, allowing a league-worst 415 yards per game, and the offense is the fifth-worst in yards gained per contest. The injuries on the defensive side of the ball also continue to pile up. With few positives to point to, Flores' coaching seat isn’t just hot, it’s on fire.

While Tagovailoa performed well last week, throwing for 291 yards and four touchdowns, the Dolphins trailed 20-7 in the second half before mounting a comeback. Miami then allowed their late lead to slip away on a field goal on the final play. It was the Dolphins' third loss of a field goal or less, but those losses have come to iffy teams. The good teams they have faced this year—mainly the Bills and Buccaneers—have beaten them by a combined score of 80-17.

The Bills may be the best team in the NFL

Buffalo comes off their bye week on a mission, having lost two weeks ago to the Tennessee Titans. They led 31-24 after three quarters, but allowed a field goal and touchdown down the stretch to lose for just the second time this season and first since the opening game. Josh Allen has been arguably the MVP of the NFL this season, with 15 passing touchdowns and two more on the ground.

Allen has dominated Miami since entering the league, with 19 touchdown passes in seven games versus just five interceptions, and has run for three scores as well. Additionally, head coach Sean McDermott has won eight of his nine meetings with the Dolphins, and is unbeaten following a bye week in his previous four years with the team. The last six meetings with Miami have seen an average margin of victory exceeding 20 points, including their 35-0 beatdown in Week 2, where Allen threw for a season-low 179 yards as the team ran for 143 yards on 30 attempts.

As if the offense wasn’t playing well enough, leading the AFC in scoring, their defense has been phenomenal as well. Despite the bye week, they are tied for the second-most interceptions in the NFL with 10, and their defensive DVOA is the best in the league. They have also allowed just 16.9 points per game, despite facing the Chiefs and Titans. Buffalo gets out early, having led at halftime in an NFL-record 15 consecutive games, and then allows their ball-hawking defense to simply take away any shot of coming back.

Dolphins and Bills Betting Trends

• The Dolphins are just 1-5 ATS in their last six games
• The Over is 4-1 in Miami’s last five games
• The Bills have beaten the Dolphins in the last four games in Buffalo
• The Dolphins have covered the spread just three times in their last nine games against Buffalo
• Buffalo is 9-1 SU in their last 10 games played at home
• The Under is 5-1 in Buffalo’s last six home games against sub-.500 teams

Expect another one-sided contest

The last two games in this series have been wholly one-sided, with Miami losing by a combined score of 81-26. I don’t see anything to suggest a different result happens in this contest. Miami’s defense allows an NFL-worst 7.3 yards gained per passing attempt, and will square off with Allen, who is eighth at 7.0 yards gained per attempt. Meanwhile, Miami gains the third-fewest per attempt at 5.4 yards, while Buffalo allows just 5.0 yards per attempt, the best mark in the NFL.

Miami cannot rely on their run game to offset that, having gained the fifth-fewest first downs in the NFL on the ground. Allen is coming into the game rested and ready to get rid of two weeks of thinking about the loss to Tennessee.

There is little value in the moneyline for this game, but I think Buffalo easily covers the spread and wins by at least two touchdowns, especially given the historical trends of this matchup and how Miami tends to get boat-raced by better teams. Take the Bills to cover the spread, and for a really nice Same Game Combo, pair it with the Buffalo team total Over and the Miami team total Under as the Bills run away with this one.

Score prediction: Buffalo 45, Miami 10

NFL Week 8 PICK: BILLS -14.0 (-114)

SAME GAME COMBO: BILLS -14.0 / BILLS Team Total O30.5 / DOLPHINS team total U16.5 (+235)

Dolphins vs. Bills pick powered by The Quant Edge

Our predictive engine is calling for the Bills to win outright.