Giants vs. Chiefs: The best player prop bets for MNF

The New York Giants travel to Kansas City to take on the Chiefs for this week’s instalment of MNF, and you’d have been called crazy if you had predicted that these teams would be separated by just one win at Halloween. Incredibly, the 2-5 Giants are coming into the game on a bit of a roll after dominating the Panthers 25-3 last week, restricting Carolina to just 173 yards of offense. The 3-4 Chiefs, meanwhile, were embarrassed in a 27-3 demolition by the Titans, in which they gave up 379 yards.

The last time these two met it was a dismal affair in 2017, which the Giants won 12-9, but MNF should see far more fireworks. Here are the three best player prop bets ahead of the game.

Travis Kelce: Over/Under 79.5 Receiving Yards

The phrase goes that hell hath no fury like a woman scorned, but maybe that should be hell hath no fury like Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs scorned. Andy Reid and Mahomes will no doubt have spent the last week trying to fix the disaster that was the Tennessee game, and they will be out to prove a point on MNF.

That’s not good news for the Giants, but it is great news for Travis Kelce. Despite the Chiefs' poor start to the season, Kelce has maintained his elite level of play, averaging 9.3 targets, 6.4 catches, and 76.1 yards per game this year.

He has now posted double-digit targets in three of his last four games, and is getting plenty of love from Mahomes. He has a 23% target share this year, and with Tyreek Hill still feeling the effects of that quad injury, it would be no surprise to see Kelce heavily featured again.

Even in that bleak 12-9 game four years ago, Kelce racked up eight catches on 14 targets for 109 yards, so he has form against the Giants. New York has given up an average of 254 passing yards a game this year, and Mahomes will want to put on a show on MNF, so expect Kelce to run riot.   

Pick: Over 79.5 Receiving Yards (-113)

Daniel Jones: Over/Under 241.5 Passing Yards

The Kansas City Chiefs have given up the ninth most passing yards per game this season in the NFL, allowing opponents to throw for a huge 285 yards per game against them. It is a woeful defense that has been exploited plenty of times already this season, but can "Danny Dimes" do enough to carry on that trend?

Jones had a monster 402-yard passing game against the Saints in Week 4, but that looks to be a significant outlier. Remove that game from his statistics, and he’s averaged just 220 yards per game this season. In the two campaigns previously, he averaged 210 yards a game (2020) and 233 yards a game (2019), so will need to pull out a big performance here.

A large problem for the Giants in recent weeks has been the injury to Saquon Barkley in Week 5. Devontae Booker has stepped in but hasn’t been too effective, so teams have loaded up the blitz on Jones and covered the wide receivers. There have been plenty of problems there as well, with the injury ward getting plenty of attention in New York.

Barkley is out again this week, as is receiver Kenny Golladay. Sterling Shepard has only played once since Week 3 and is questionable with a hamstring issue, while Kadarius Toney is struggling with an ankle issue and is also questionable after missing last week’s game.

Even given the Chiefs’ issues against the pass, Jones’ lack of true star quality and his banged-up receivers make this a good bet on the Under.

Pick: Under 241.5 Passing Yards (-113)

Darrel Williams: Over/Under 59.5 Rushing Yards

Patrick Mahomes was the Chiefs' leading rusher with 35 yards last week, and while that may be a nice little spicy take for Twitter, let’s not jump the gun. Darrel Williams has stepped in for Clyde Edwards-Helaire – who is still on the shelf – but last week's game script was completely against him, as he ran just four times for 20 yards. The Chiefs were down early, and this game passed him by.

The week before, Williams ran 21 times for 62 yards against the Washington Football Team. Although that’s just 2.95 yards per carry, Washington does allow the seventh-fewest yards per game to running backs, so it’s arguably better than the box score looks.

This week he has the chance to feast as the Giants allow running backs an average of 111.6 yards a game – the fifth most in the NFL. In Week 6, Darrell Henderson ran for 78 yards on 21 carries (3.7 yards per attempt), a week earlier Ezekiel Elliott ran for 110 yards on 21 carries (5.2 yards per attempt), and a week before that Alvin Kamara ran 26 times for 120 yards (4.6 yards per attempt). The Giants' run defense has plenty of holes for Williams to exploit.

Williams will want to put down a marker while CEH is still out, and if there was ever a primetime game for him to put his name in lights, this is it. 

Pick: Over 59.5 Rushing Yards (-117)