Is Mahomes still a good bet to lead the NFL in passing yards?
Kansas City Chiefs Quarterback Patrick Mahomes scrambles out of the pocket during a game against the Indianapolis Colts. (Photo by Jeffrey Brown/Icon Sportswire)
October 11th, 2019
As we enter the sixth week of the NFL’s regular season, it is a good time to look at trends and try to win a few prop bets. This season you may have just the right mix of a frontrunner and a solid value when it comes to who will lead the NFL regular season in passing yards. Patrick Mahomes has begun to separate himself from the pack—but not to the point that he is running away with the race.
Odds to lead the NFL in passing yards
| Player | Odds |
|---|
Patrick Mahomes | -140 |
Matt Ryan | +500 |
Jared Goff | +600 |
Philip Rivers | +1000 |
Andy Dalton | +1200 |
Dak Prescott | +1200 |
Through his first five games Mahomes has thrown for 1,831 yards and 11 touchdowns, with no interceptions. He has completed nearly 66% of his throws, and is averaging over nine yards per attempt. He has topped 300 yards in each game and has only topped 400 in one, so he has been fairly consistent. Mahomes has also produced those numbers without his most dangerous weapon, Tyreek Hill, who has missed four games with a shoulder injury. That may change this weekend, as Hill looks ready to return against Houston.
At -140 to win the passing title, Mahomes seems like a very nice value bet. There are a few reasons this might be a trap, however. First, Kansas City has faced four teams ranked 18th or worse in pass yards allowed per game, with only the Colts (ranked 15th) the outlier. Those same Colts made Mahomes look somewhat mortal Sunday night, when he completed a season-low 56% of his throws and was sacked four times. The remaining 11 games on the Chiefs schedule will feature eight matchups against teams ranked in the top seven in passing yards allowed. It remains to be seen if the return of Hill will offset the tougher defenses they will face, but it is worth taking into consideration.
Just behind Mahomes are Matt Ryan (+500) and Jared Goff (+600). It is difficult to trust either.
Ryan has started well. He has completed 70.3% of his throws for 1,655 yards, and he has topped 300 yards in all five of his starts. His numbers should get a boost, as he faces two terrible pass defenses (Arizona and Seattle) in his next three games, and he has thrown the ball 40 or more times in four of his five starts. But Ryan plays for a 1-4 Falcons team and has been hit often this season. Goff he can be discounted for one simple reason—more than 500 of his 1,649 yards came in one game. He’s too inconsistent to be considered a threat in this race.
Wilson is playing above what the numbers say he should be and is having an amazing start to the season. Per NFL’s Next Gen Stats, his +10.5% completions-above-expectation rating is the highest through five weeks of any passer in the last three years. He also leads the NFL in completion percentage on throws of more than 20 yards and is tied for the fourth most completions of 40 or more yards so far this season (four). Wilson is also less reliant on his receivers doing work after the catch, as he ranks fourth among eligible QBs in average completed air yards (7.5), just ahead of Mahomes.
At -140 to win the passing title, Mahomes seems like a very nice value bet. There are a few reasons this might be a trap, however. First, Kansas City has faced four teams ranked 18th or worse in pass yards allowed per game, with only the Colts (ranked 15th) the outlier. Those same Colts made Mahomes look somewhat mortal Sunday night, when he completed a season-low 56% of his throws and was sacked four times. The remaining 11 games on the Chiefs schedule will feature eight matchups against teams ranked in the top seven in passing yards allowed. It remains to be seen if the return of Hill will offset the tougher defenses they will face, but it is worth taking into consideration.
Can Mahomes stay healthy?
The one other concern is Mahomes’ ankle. With injuries on the offensive line, if Mahomes cannot be protected, his ankle could become a hindrance as the season progresses. However, with an offense void of any real rushing threat (LeSean McCoy, Damien Williams and Darrel Williams have combined for fewer than 80 yards per game), a healthy Mahomes will be the focal point of the offense and will get plenty of chances to throw it.Just behind Mahomes are Matt Ryan (+500) and Jared Goff (+600). It is difficult to trust either.
Ryan has started well. He has completed 70.3% of his throws for 1,655 yards, and he has topped 300 yards in all five of his starts. His numbers should get a boost, as he faces two terrible pass defenses (Arizona and Seattle) in his next three games, and he has thrown the ball 40 or more times in four of his five starts. But Ryan plays for a 1-4 Falcons team and has been hit often this season. Goff he can be discounted for one simple reason—more than 500 of his 1,649 yards came in one game. He’s too inconsistent to be considered a threat in this race.
Don't overlook Russell Wilson
If you are looking for a dark-horse pick, you may want to consider Russell Wilson (+2500) for a few reasons.Wilson is playing above what the numbers say he should be and is having an amazing start to the season. Per NFL’s Next Gen Stats, his +10.5% completions-above-expectation rating is the highest through five weeks of any passer in the last three years. He also leads the NFL in completion percentage on throws of more than 20 yards and is tied for the fourth most completions of 40 or more yards so far this season (four). Wilson is also less reliant on his receivers doing work after the catch, as he ranks fourth among eligible QBs in average completed air yards (7.5), just ahead of Mahomes.
The NFL’s Next-Gen Stats created a metric called Dimes, which is for throws traveling 30 or more yards in the air into windows of one yard or less. The top five since 2016:
— Bill Barnwell (@billbarnwell) October 10, 2019
Russell Wilson, 40
Matthew Stafford, 34
Ben Roethlisberger ,33
Dak Prescott, 28
Drew Brees, 28
Wilson will face five more teams ranked 20th or worse in passing yards allowed, but he'll face five teams ranked in the top seven, as well. What helps Wilson is he plays in the competitive NFC West, and given the division race might come down to the final weekend, he will be used consistently all the way to the end of the season. An aspect to consider with Wilson is that he currently ranks 22nd in pass attempts per game (among quarterbacks with at least 100 attempts this season), and yet is ranked seventh in passing yards, only 422 behind Mahomes. Any uptick in usage immediately elevates his chances to catch the Chiefs gunslinger.
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