Are Jacksonville Jaguars Going from First to Worst in the AFC South?
November 9th, 2018
How quickly things change in the NFL. This Sunday there's an AFC South showdown for last place in the division, as the Indianapolis Colts (3-5) host the Jacksonville Jaguars (3-5) at Lucas Oil Stadium. Both teams enter off their bye week, but the Jaguars are confused and have cohesion issues on offense with four straight losses losses entering Week 10 action. Last season the Jaguars won the AFC South going 10-6 and just missed a Super Bowl berth with a narrow loss at New England 24-20 in the AFC Championship Game. The previous season the Jaguars were last in the AFC South at 3-13 before making the jump from worst to first.
Now, the Jacksonville Jaguars could be on their way to reversing that with a first-to-worst finish should they lose at Indianapolis Sunday.
Some interesting indicators suggest the Colts (-3) will get the job done and beat the Jaguars. Indianapolis enters this division showdown off its bye, and the Colts romped over the Raiders on the road prior to the bye 42-38. NFL favorites coming out of a bye that scored at least 36 points in its previous game are 44-20 ATS since 1980 according to Playbook, and 37-11 ATS when facing a sub .600 opponent. If they are a favorite of less than 9 points, those hungry homers with rest tend to roast their opponents going 28-4 ATS.
Andrew Luck is in the running for Comeback Player of the Year and has already thrown 23 touchdown passes. The Colts have only played three home games, but scored 23, 34 and 37 points. The Jaguars defense was supposed to be one of the very best again this season, and that has been the lone bright spot ranking top-2 in total yards against (313/game) and 5.0 yards per play. However, the Jags defense only has seven takeaways after registering 33 last season. With the turnover troubles on offense, it’s resulted in a -11 turnover margin; worst in the AFC.
The concerns about Jacksonville Jaguars QB Blake Bortles have been heard following four straight losses while scoring 14, 7, 7 and 18 points in defeat. Perhaps the return of RB Leonard Fournette this week after missing six games will be a boost.
But I wouldn’t bet on it.
Week 10 NFL Pick: Indianapolis Colts -2.5
Now, the Jacksonville Jaguars could be on their way to reversing that with a first-to-worst finish should they lose at Indianapolis Sunday.
Some interesting indicators suggest the Colts (-3) will get the job done and beat the Jaguars. Indianapolis enters this division showdown off its bye, and the Colts romped over the Raiders on the road prior to the bye 42-38. NFL favorites coming out of a bye that scored at least 36 points in its previous game are 44-20 ATS since 1980 according to Playbook, and 37-11 ATS when facing a sub .600 opponent. If they are a favorite of less than 9 points, those hungry homers with rest tend to roast their opponents going 28-4 ATS.
Andrew Luck is in the running for Comeback Player of the Year and has already thrown 23 touchdown passes. The Colts have only played three home games, but scored 23, 34 and 37 points. The Jaguars defense was supposed to be one of the very best again this season, and that has been the lone bright spot ranking top-2 in total yards against (313/game) and 5.0 yards per play. However, the Jags defense only has seven takeaways after registering 33 last season. With the turnover troubles on offense, it’s resulted in a -11 turnover margin; worst in the AFC.
The concerns about Jacksonville Jaguars QB Blake Bortles have been heard following four straight losses while scoring 14, 7, 7 and 18 points in defeat. Perhaps the return of RB Leonard Fournette this week after missing six games will be a boost.
But I wouldn’t bet on it.
Week 10 NFL Pick: Indianapolis Colts -2.5
Fairway Jay is a professional handicapper based out of Las Vegas. He focuses primarily on the four majors along with college football and college basketball. You can follow him on Twitter @FairwayJay.
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