Lions vs. Rams: NFL Week 7 betting odds, preview, and pick

Jared Goff and Matthew Stafford will face their old teams on Sunday when the winless Detroit Lions visit the 5-1 Los Angeles Rams.

Lions need more from Goff

Detroit head coach Dan Campbell hesitated for a long time on Sunday in his post-game interview before saying what everyone watching the Lions knew—Jared Goff isn’t playing well enough. Campbell strongly stated that his new quarterback needed to "step up more than he has" following their ugly 34-11 defeat to the Bengals, in which Goff threw for 202 yards and a pick with no touchdowns. The Lions did not even get on the scoreboard until midway through the final stanza to make the score 27-3.

Detroit is unlucky to not have a victory this season, but they seem to be regressing every week. They now rank 25th in the NFL in passing yards, and 28th in scoring offense. Now, Goff will square off with a team whose offense has improved immensely since his departure, and a defense that knows his tendencies and will put pressure on him every chance they get.

The Lions have many issues well beyond their quarterback play. Defensively, they have allowed 12 passing touchdowns this season on just 165 pass attempts, the fewest attempts in the league. Their passer rating against ranks dead last in the NFL, and Joe Burrow carved them up last weekend to the tune of 271 yards and three touchdowns on just 19 completions. They have now allowed 30 or more points to half of their opponents, and have allowed at least 19 in each game.

Rams quite happy with their side of QB swap

Meanwhile, former Lions franchise quarterback Matthew Stafford is enjoying life in southern California. The Rams rank fourth in the NFL in passing yardage and passer rating, and Stafford has the third-most touchdown passes on the season. Additionally, he is learning what life is like in a clean pocket, as he has taken the fewest sacks per dropback of any quarterback in the league.

Those numbers are vastly different from last season, where the Rams ranked in the 20s in touchdowns, QB rating, and yards per attempt. Nobody has benefited more from the improved quarterback play than wide receiver Cooper Kupp, who has caught 46 of his league-high 68 targets for 653 yards and seven touchdowns. If he can up his current pace, he will flirt with Calvin Johnson’s single-season receiving yardage mark—albeit with an extra game over Megatron.

The lone blemish on the Rams’ record was their defeat to Arizona, but since then they have gone on the road and beaten the Seahawks, followed by demolishing New York last weekend 38-11. Stafford threw four touchdown scores against the Giants, and will hope to top that mark against the franchise with whom he spent 12 fruitless seasons.

Lions and Rams Betting Trends

• The Lions are winless in their last 10 games
• The Under is 4-1 in Detroit’s last five games
• The Rams are 6-3 ATS in their last nine games
• The Over is 6-2 in the Rams’ last eight games
• The Rams are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games against the Lions

The Lions are in over their heads

Fifteen points is a lot for any team to lay in the NFL, but it makes sense here. The Lions are simply overmatched, outmanned, and will be traveling across the country to face a team that will exploit every weakness they possess. Goff is under pressure to perform, and this is one of the worst defenses to try to take that big step against. In a game where he should be conservative and take care of the football, Goff will want to show he can deliver, and it will likely lead to costly turnovers.

Los Angeles might be able to pick their score with their passing game alone. The Rams lead the NFL in yards per pass attempt at 9.1, and no team is close to the Lions in yards allowed per attempt at 9.8. It is a recipe for disaster for the visitors, who will see their record move to 0-7 on the year in blowout fashion.

Don’t be afraid to lay the points here, as I expect Los Angeles to easily cover the spread. I would also expect the Rams to run up the score, combined with the Lions struggling to find the end zone, and pair the Rams’ Over and Lions’ Under with the Rams covering for a nice Same Game Combo wager.

Score prediction: Los Angeles 38, Detroit 10

NFL Week 7 Pick: RAMS -15 (-110)

SAME GAME COMBO: RAMS -15 + RAMS Team Total O32.5 + LIONS Team Total U16.5, (+245)

Lions vs. Rams pick powered by The Quant Edge

Our predictive engine is calling for the Rams to win outright and cover the spread, and for the total to go Under 50.5 points.