Missouri Bettors: Now is the time to back Chiefs

With a 6-6 record, the Chiefs’ backs are up against the wall, outside of the playoff bubble, needing to make a serious push with five regular-season games remaining. They exit a mistake-filled Thanksgiving Day loss to the Cowboys, sustaining a third one-score loss in the last four games, but it would be premature to call the Chiefs done, not with Patrick Mahomes, Andy Reid, and their culture.

Kansas City knows how to finish, going 4-0 in December games last year. Excluding meaningless games in which they rested their starters, the Chiefs are 13-1 straight up combined over the final five regular-season games the last three seasons. They win big games, and it’s now or never for their postseason hopes.

Since Mahomes took over at quarterback in 2018, the Chiefs have made seven consecutive championship games, reaching the Super Bowl the last three years and six of the last seven. The three-time Super Bowl champions have thrived in big moments.

Three of the next five games are at home vs playoff contenders: Texans, Chargers, and Broncos. Arrowhead Stadium will be rocking. And the Chiefs will face a pair of bad teams, the Raiders and Titans, on the road.

Strategy

All the remaining games are winnable; the Chiefs will look to run the table. And my strategy is simple: make money on the remaining regular season games and position myself for potential postseason success.

Let’s focus first on the first December game, utilizing DraftKings, which offers the best postseason odds as of Dec. 3.

Texans at Chiefs, 8 p.m. Sunday

The Chiefs are 4-2 ATS in home games this year and face a Texans offense that has been low-scoring and inefficient in the red zone, averaging less than 20 points per game, winning the last three. They are the seventh-highest scoring team at home, averaging 27.7 points per game, and will put pressure on C.J. Stroud, who is making only his second game back from injury, to make plays downfield. That will play into the hands of the Chiefs' defense. The Texans hang their hats on an opportunistic defense, forcing 19 takeaways, but the Chiefs tied for second-best in the league with only eight giveaways. Mahomes and the Chiefs offense will prove too much in the end for a Texans team that has been dominated at Kansas City, losing the last four meetings by a combined 51 points, including a pair of convincing losses in December and January last year.

Pick: Chiefs -3.5

Conclusion

Underestimate the character of the Chiefs at your own risk. And this is the time to adopt a “Buy low, sell high” strategy, taking advantage of the value available with 29% of the regular season remaining (five games). 

The Chiefs are +950 to win the AFC, 1800+ to win the Super Bowl.