New York Jets vs. Indianapolis Colts: The best Carson Wentz prop bets for TNF

Week 9 kicks off with an AFC showdown on Thursday Night Football, as the New York Jets head to Lucas Oil Stadium to take on the Indianapolis Colts.

Incredibly, the 2-5 Jets come into this game with some momentum, after backup quarterback Mike White threw for 405 yards and three touchdowns in a 34-31 win against the Cincinnati Bengals that required an 11-point, fourth quarter comeback.

The Colts are 3-5 but are expected to comfortably bring the Jets back down to earth as a 10.5-point favorite.

Indianapolis will need Carson Wentz to step up and bounce back from two ill-judged interceptions in the team's overtime loss to the Titans. One of those interceptions was returned for a pick-six, while the other helped set up Tennessee’s game-winning field goal — ouch!

There are plenty of question marks hanging over the QB situation in Indy, but here are the three best prop bets, as Carson Wentz aims to get back on track.

Over/Under 244.5 Passing Yards

Last week was not pretty for Wentz. Along with the two costly interceptions, he also completed just 53% of his passes – 27 of 51 attempts – and totaled just 231 yards in the air. That is the third time in a row he has fallen under 244.5 and the 10th time in his last 13 games.

Went is throwing for an average of 240.8 yards per game this season (which ranks 21st amongst QBs in the NFL), but even that statistic is a little bit misleading. In Week 5, Wentz threw for 402 yards against Baltimore, which was the best passing game of his career and his highest number of passing yards in a game since Week 9 in 2016, when he threw for 364 yards against the New York Giants.

No team in the NFL gives up as many passing yards per game as the Ravens (296.1), so that huge Wentz total isn’t a surprise, but it is a big anomaly, given his typical performances.

Remove that game from his season, and suddenly his average passing yards per game drops to 218.

The Jets aren’t as bad as Baltimore against the pass, but they aren’t too much better. They rank 27th versus the pass and give up 275.3 yards per game through the air. Mac Jones and Teddy Bridgewater are the only two quarterbacks not to rack up more than 250 yards against the Jets this season.

Wentz is averaging fewer yards per attempt than both Jones and Bridgewater this year, and he may be the third to fail to reach that mark.

Michael Pittman Jr. has had a couple of huge games this season and may have another one here, but I’m still taking the Under on Wentz’s passing yardage.

Pick: Under 244.5 Passing Yards (-114)

Over/Under 21.5 pass completions

Simply put, Wentz just hasn’t been hitting his receivers with enough frequency this year. His pass completion rate for the season is 62%, which ranks 27th among all quarterbacks. He averages just 21 completions a game, and that isn’t going to be enough to beat this line in a game where the Colts are expected to win by a double-digit score.

Overall, this season, the Colts choose to pass 57.8% of the time, but when they’re in positive game script, that drops to just 45%, and they start to lean more on Jonathan Taylor.

A prime example of this was in Week 6 against the Texans, as the Colts went up 14 points early in the third quarter. Taylor racked up a huge score that day, running for 145 yards, as Wentz attempted just 20 passes and completed 11.

The Colts could get ahead early again here, and if the game follows a similar pattern, expect to see more JT as the Colts try to manage the clock and avoid any costly turnovers that have plagued Wentz’s recent games.

Pick: Under 21.5 Pass Completions (-117)

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Over/Under 1.5 touchdown passes

The Colts are predicted to put roughly 28 points on the Jets on Thursday, which is why this line is set at 1.5 passing touchdowns, but there are plenty of reasons to believe there’s value in the Under.

The Jets have only given up eight passing touchdowns this season and only three players —  Jones, Matt Ryan, and Joe Burrow – have managed to throw multiple touchdowns in a game against them. The Jets are tied for seventh in opponent passing touchdowns per game.

The bad news for Jets fans is that the defense has given up 12 touchdowns on the ground, which ranks 31st in the league. That's music to the ears of Taylor, no doubt, who has had 37 rushes inside the red zone already.

When the Colts get in close, they run the ball 61% of the time and put their faith in JT.

Wentz has had five straight games with multiple touchdowns, but there is value in the Under.

Pick: Under 1.5 Touchdown Passes (+106)