NFL picks and player props for Week 10

Let’s will focus upon a trio of NFL games in Week 10, selecting either a side or total from each game as well as player props of interest.

Top Picks

San Francisco -3

San Francisco needed the bye week to get healthier, and a three-game losing streak provides incentive for a strong showing. And the Niners have played well in Jacksonville in the past, compiling a 5-0 ATS record, while Jacksonville is 0-5 ATS in the last five vs NFC West competition. Niners may get Deebo Samuels and Trent Williams back, Brock Purdy and Christian McCaffrey are now 100% after being nicked up, and the Niners’ formerly top-ranked defense will benefit from a refresher after being gashed for 853 passing yards and six touchdowns in the last three games. San Francisco remains formidable on both sides of the ball, ranking fourth by scoring offense (27.3 points per game) and scoring defense (17.5 points allowed per game), and Jacksonville has not been a high-scoring offense outside their division, held to 25 points or less in four of five games. The Jaguars have looked better than they are winning the last five games, San Francisco has looked worse than they are losing the last five. The Niners will back on the right track this week. 

Detroit-LA Chargers over 48.5

Perfect spot for the over, both teams rank in the top 10 in scoring offense, and Los Angeles will need to outscore a Detroit offense that ranks second in yards per game (390.6). The Chargers have the firepower, and their 21st-ranked scoring defense will take a step back after facing anemic offensive attacks from Chicago and New York Jets the last two games. Detroit is a deserving favorite, but Los Angeles is starting to gain confidence after overcoming a 2-4 start. We expect a competitive, high-scoring affair.

New York Jets-Las Vegas under 36.5

Unders have performed well all year, hitting at a 61.5% rate (83 of 135 games), and most primetime games have been low-scoring affairs this season. And points figure to be at a premium here given how atrocious both teams have performed, and we’ll be surprised to either team exceed 20 points. The Jets remain formidable on the defensive side, they will give Las Vegas’ 26th-ranked scoring offense fits, and the Raiders have failed to score more than 17 in four of their six games. New York is even worse offensively, averaging only 16.5 points per game (30th-ranked), and Zach Wilson’s regression in recent weeks has likely doomed any hope the Jets had of making the playoffs. Look for another low-scoring game on Sunday night!

Player Props

Deebo Samuel, San Francisco, over 46.5 yards receiving -110

Deebo Samuel returns after missing a few weeks, and San Francisco’s top wide receiver has recorded at least 55 receiving yards in all four games he’s played. He always comes back strong from injury, and Samuel looks poised to reward over backers in this spot.

Amon-Ra St. Brown, Detroit, over 82.5 yards receiving -115

Since missing Week 5, Amon-Ra St. Brown has been on a tear, recording 100+ passing yards in three consecutive games prior to the bye last week, and the top Lions receiver will look to exploit the worst pass defense in the NFL. The Chargers allow 286 passing yards per game, a number that would be higher if they hadn’t faced two of the worst passing offenses the last two weeks (Bears and Jets), and that means another big afternoon for St. Brown.

Josh Jacobs, Las Vegas Raiders, under 65.5 yards rushing -115

The Jets held the Los Angeles Chargers to 191 total yards despite losing 27-6 last week, limiting Austin Ekeler to 47 rushing yards on 14 carries, and New York’s top-notch defense faces a favorable match up against the Raiders’ 31st-ranked rushing offense (76.1 rushing yards per game). Aidan O’Connell completed 16 of 25 passes last week, so Las Vegas isn’t afraid to rely on the pass if necessary, and the Jets will look to take away the run game and make the rookie quarterback beat them.