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November 4th, 2023
We will focus upon a trio of NFL games in Week 9, selecting either a side or total from each game as well as player props of interest.
Here are our plays.
Cincinnati is back on track, confirming themselves as a legitimate AFC contender with a 14-point win at San Francisco, and the Bengals won 10 in a row after three early-season losses last year, winding up with a stellar 13-6 ATS record. Joe Burrow is 100% healthy, adding 43 yards rushing to his sterling 87.5% completion rate (28-for-32) last week, and the Bengals are playing their best defense presently. Look for Cincy to keep rolling.
Buffalo will get some defensive help next week, which the Bills desperately need, and the offense is stuck in a midseason funk. They won’t be able to trade points with Cincinnati. Over the last three games, the Bills have barely escaped the New York Giants and Tampa Bay at home, with both opponents having an opportunity to take the lead late in the fourth quarter, and Buffalo lost to New England. The offense lacks efficiency, and the defense has not been able to replace key contributors lost to injury.
Player prop: Ja’Marr Chase over 84.5 passing yards (-115)
Came out swingin' #CINatSF | 📺 CBS pic.twitter.com/G8Zx4nxR0k— Cincinnati Bengals (@Bengals) October 29, 2023
Came out swingin' #CINatSF | 📺 CBS pic.twitter.com/G8Zx4nxR0k
Expect a low-scoring, defensive struggle with teams starting new quarterbacks. Minnesota struggled to put up points with Kirk Cousins, winning ugly over Carolina (21-13) and Chicago (19-13) in recent games, but he was the straw that stirred the drink offensively and the Vikings will take a step back with rookie Jaren Hall taking the reins.
Atlanta enters with a 4-4 record despite the substandard play of Desmond Ridder, who finally was benched in favor Tyler Heinicke, who had lost the starting job in Washington. Heinicke may provide a slight upgrade, going 5-3-1 ATS as a starter last season, but he lacks a strong arm. The Falcons rely on defense and the run game with one of the lowest scoring offenses in the league (17.3 points per game).
Player prop: Kyle Pitts under 3.5 receptions (+105)
After fielding a respectable defense last year, Indianapolis is the league’s biggest disappointment defensively this season. The Colts haven’t come close to meeting expectations, surrendering a league-worst 28.6 points per game, and they’ve been particularly bad of late, surrendering 39 points to Cleveland and 38 points to New Orleans over the last two weeks. The Colts still score a lot of points, they run the ball effectively in the red zone, and the Over is 10-2 in their last 12 games.
Carolina will also surrender a lot of points at times, yielding 42 points to Detroit and Miami in the last three games, and the Panthers are starting to find their rhythm offensively, producing the first win of the season last week. Carolina has everything to play for — Chicago owns the Panthers' first-round pick — and looks poised for a breakout performance against one of the softest defenses in the league.
Player props: Jonathon Taylor Over 66.5 rushing yards (-110), Bryce Young Over 229.5 yards passing (-115)
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