NFL Underdog Betting Strategy: How to Profit Against Favorites

The NFL season is here, and you know what that means: betting time! Bettors are preparing to tackle the most popular sport in the country, sizing up the odds to find the right underdogs to take this season.

Whether you pick them to win outright or are just looking for the right spread bets, a few simple tips can help make you profitable this coming season. While prop bets and futures are certainly fun, there is nothing like betting on massive underdogs during the NFL season.

NFL Underdog Betting Tips

Have an underdog betting on your mind? The majority of the time, the underdogs lose the moneyline but there are generally a few profitable wagers to be made. If you are looking for value betting on the underdogs, a few tips will go a long way.

Watch the Schedule

One factor that helps underdogs from a betting perspective is being overlooked. Good teams have far too often been caught looking past the underdogs to a more important matchup looming ahead. This presents a perfect betting opportunity.

Take a close look at the schedule of good teams to find your spot. Facing underdogs ahead of a huge matchup with a great team could be the classic “trap” game. Underdogs seemingly overperform in these games but are really taking advantage of an opposing team that isn’t quite focused on them. It’s the perfect opportunity to score an upset win.

Coming Off a Bad Loss

There is a point of pride for every NFL team, no matter how bad. When looking at underdogs, consider the teams that are coming off a particularly bad beating. Though no one expects them to win, they can wind up being more than a handful as they attempt to regain a measure of respect.

Underdogs coming off a bad loss should be prime candidates to bet on the following week. Odds should also be quite favorable, so betting on them to win could turn into a major score. Take a close look at last week’s results to find out who is potentially playing with a chip on their shoulder.

Facing Division Rivals

It is tough to score a win in the NFL. Though moneyline odds may seem astronomical for the dogs, the competition is much tighter than it appears. When two divisional foes meet, the underdogs have a better chance to win simply through familiarity.

Wagering on divisional underdogs makes sense in NFL betting. Check recent trends, but the two sides generally know each other quite well at that point. Dogs are more likely to pull off a win against a divisional favorite than they are against another random team. That equates to some serious value for bettors.

Fade the Public

One common factor in NFL betting is seeing what the public is doing. Let’s use Minnesota vs. Cincinnati as an example. In this game, the public loves the favorite (Minnesota) and the majority of the money is on them to win and cover.

Though it isn’t a guarantee (there is no guarantee in betting), going against the public may give you the best odds. A sportsbook would not make a profit if the public was right more often than not. Underdogs may be worth the investment – even the moneyline - if the public is heavily invested in the favorite.

Take Massive Underdogs Against the Spread

When looking at the moneyline between two teams, a massive point spread may make it seem like the game is all but decided. These are the bets that you should be adding to your ticket. Massive underdogs, particularly against the point spread are often sound bets.

Let’s say there is a contest between Dallas and Cincinnati where the latter is favored to win by more than a touchdown. In the NFL, being that big of a point spread favorite can be detrimental to covering. The dogs would probably be the safer bet and, given the odds, the much better value.

Road Dogs

Building a bit on the point about divisional underdogs, there may be no better opportunity to bet on the underdogs than when they are on the road. Looking into the trends, road divisional underdogs tend to perform quite well, especially against the moneyline.

Home favorites tend to get complacent and are ripe to bet against when it comes to the spread. Wagering on underdogs is tough, but betting on road underdogs can be a sound investment over the course of the season.

Bet on the Dogs This Season and Win More Often

You don’t have to win every weekend in order to turn a profit. Oddsmakers have the edge, but you can use these tips to ride the right dogs all the way to victory. The right winner here and there can help you be profitable during the season.

The NFL is a parody league and underdog betting is a delicate dance. Follow the odds, see how the game line shifts, and analyze the teams ahead of the game. Seasoned bettors have turned underdog betting into a profitable venture season after season. Can you ride the underdogs to a big win this NFL season?