NFL Week 11: Dolphins vs. Broncos odds, preview, and pick

We've come to expect the unexpected in 2020, but who expected the Miami Dolphins to be so good?

At this time last year, the Dolphins were tanking for Tua Tagovailoa, whom they selected in the first round of the 2020 NFL Draft. Fast forward to November, and Miami is now in the hunt for a playoff spot after rattling off five straight wins. They could even win the AFC East.

The Dolphins will look to make it six in a row when they go to the Mile High City on Sunday to face the struggling Broncos. Denver has lost two in a row, pushing its record to 3-6 on the season and just 1-3 at home.  

Tua has taken over in Miami

It was exactly one month ago that the Dolphins made headlines around the NFL by naming Tua Tagovailoa as their starting quarterback. 

In the minds of some, the conventional thinking would have been to not rush the development process by placing Tagovailoa into a situation he wasn’t quite ready for. The starter in front of him was, after all, 16-year veteran Ryan Fitzpatrick, who was more than capable of holding down the fort. 

Since the move, the Dolphins have gone 3-0, including two wins over two very solid NFC West clubs in the Los Angeles Rams and Arizona Cardinals. 

Tagovailoa has improved each week, which is a positive sign for a rookie quarterback, especially after his final year in college ended so abruptly.

It's worth noting that Tagovailoa's passing numbers haven't been spectacular. He completed 12-of-22 passes for 93 yards against the Rams in his first game as a starter. He completed 20-of-28 passes for 248 yards and two touchdowns the following week. In Week 10 against the Los Angeles Chargers, he completed 15 passes for 169 yards and two touchdowns. 

One key stat we haven’t mentioned yet: Zero interceptions. 

The Dolphins will take these numbers - and, most importantly, the wins - all day long.

There is still plenty of football remaining, but Tagovailoa’s play is one sign of a team trending in the right direction as it heads into the stretch drive. 

Jerry Jeudy is making an impact

Taken in the first round of the 2020 NFL Draft, Jerry Jeudy was to become another key piece of a Broncos offense that is clearly rebuilding around a younger core. 

Jeudy leads the Broncos in a number of different receiving categories this season including targets, receiving yards, and big plays of 20 yards or more. The Broncos have to love his production, which would likely be even better were it not for injuries at the quarterback position. Denver has had to start three different quarterbacks in 2020: Drew Lock, Jeff Driskel, and Brett Rypien.

Unfortunately injuries could once again hit the Broncos offense this weekend...

Dolphins vs. Broncos injury report

Jeudy was listed as a limited participant in practice on Wednesday and Thursday, but does not carry injury designation for Sunday, according to reports. Lock didn’t practice Wednesday, but was limited Thursday with that rib injury. Tight end Noah Fant (ribs) was also a limited participant Thursday after sitting out Wednesday’s session. 

The Dolphins had good news on the injury front this week. Running back Matt Breida (hamstring) was listed as a full participant this week, which should give Miami’s run game a boost Sunday. Tua Tagovailoa (foot) was also listed as a full participant this week, while linebacker Kyle Van Noy (hip) was a limited participant Thursday.

Dolphins and Broncos betting trends

The Dolphins have been money against the spread this season, with a 7-2 record, covering in 77% of their games. They’re also 3-1 ATS on the road. They are favored this week, with a 2-0 record ATS as the favorites. 

The Broncos are 5-4 against the spread, including 2-2 on their home turf. They’re also 2-2 as home underdogs. We’ve seen the weather factor into Broncos games already this season – you may recall snow in October against the Chiefs – but reports indicate sunny skies and light winds should prevail this weekend. 

Score prediction: Dolphins 27, Broncos 17

NFL picks: Dolphins -4, Under 45.5 

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