NFL Week 12: Chiefs vs. Buccaneers odds, preview, and pick

The best quarterback in the NFL will face-off against one of the greatest to ever play the position on Sunday afternoon, when the Kansas City Chiefs travel to Tampa Bay to play the Buccaneers.

Mahomes continues to dazzle

The Chiefs are on a roll, having won five straight games after last week’s 35-31 comeback win over the Raiders. Las Vegas took a 31-28 lead with 1:43 left to go, but that was more than enough time for Patrick Mahomes. He marched the Chiefs down the field, going 75 yards on seven plays, and threw the game-winning 22-yard touchdown to Travis Kelce with just 28 seconds left.

Mahomes threw for 348 yards and two touchdowns in the game, and threw just his first interception during the five-game winning streak and only his second of the entire year. He has thrown 27 touchdowns on the season thus far, and continues to show that there are few defenses in the league that can slow him down, much less stop him.

The Chiefs’ defense has allowed 31 points to each of their last two opponents, in part because of their lack of pass rush recently. They recorded zero sacks against the Raiders, after recording just two against the week against the Panthers and zero against the Jets before that. They will need to generate some pressure on Tom Brady if they want to make things easier for their offense this week.

Can Brady get back on track?

Tom Brady and the Bucs have now lost two of their last three games after starting the season 6-2. Tampa Bay scored just 10 points in the second half of their Week 11 loss to the Rams, and blew a chance to tie or win the game when Brady threw his third interception.

While L.A. failed to sack him, Brady faced lots of pressure from the Rams and has uncharacteristically has struggled to handle defenses that have gotten into his face this season. It's important that teams get to him, otherwise he has all day to locate his many weapons in Tampa Bay's passing game. With the lack of help he is getting from the rushing game, the Bucs go as Brady goes. The future Hall of Famer has thrown five interceptions compared to five touchdowns over his last three games.

On the other side of the ball, Tampa Bay allowed nearly 400 yards passing to Jared Goff, as he completed 76-percent of his throws. In their four defeats this season, they have allowed more than 1,100 yards passing and 10 touchdowns to just three interceptions. While their rush defense has been outstanding, teams like Kansas City are a bad matchup for them.

Kansas City vs. Tampa Bay injury report

Kansas City enters this game in good shape on the injury front, with no players from last weekend’s game expected to miss Sunday's action.

Tampa Bay center A.Q. Shipley will miss the rest of the season with a neck injury, and coach Bruce Arians has said it may end his career. G Ali Marpet is still in concussion protocol and is questionable for the game, as is CB Jamel Dean. Edge rusher Jason Pierre-Paul is questionable as well.

Chiefs vs. Buccaneers betting trends

The Chiefs have covered the spread in 15 of their last 19 games going back to last season, and they have covered the spread in their last eight contests when favored by seven or fewer points. They have also covered the number in each of their last seven games on the road. The total has gone Over in four of their last six games. However, they have lost their last five meetings with Tampa Bay.

Tampa Bay has covered just three times in their last eight games, and only once in their last four. The total has gone Over in four of their last five games, and in eight of their last 11 home games.

This is a bad matchup for a Tampa Bay team that is trying to maintain pace with the Saints for the top of the division. Mahomes has lost just once this season, and he is picking defenses apart with surgical precision. With his weapons all healthy, there is little that the Bucs have shown of late that should make you worry about the Chiefs putting points on the board.

The game result will come down to whether or not Kansas City can bring pressure on Brady. He has shown this season that if you make him uncomfortable, he is prone to making mistakes. It’s weird to see after how his career has played out, but he is the wrong side of 40 and he’s simply not the quarterback he once was. Tampa Bay was outscored by the Saints 76-26 in their two meetings, and I expect a similar result from a similar style of offense in Kansas City.

Score prediction: Kansas City 34, Tampa Bay 23

NFL picks: Chiefs -3, Over 55.5

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