NFL Week 13 Parlay: Best bets for Thanksgiving Weekend

Since 2004, favorites are 40-20 ATS in Thanksgiving Day games, but YouBet.com will take a stand against with a best bet selection in our Week 13 parlay. We hit the Week 12 parlay, the third win over the last six weeks. And after studying the games, YouBet.com offers the following Week 13 parlay, all lines courtesy of BetMGM and times listed as Eastern Standard Time.

NFL Week 13 Parlay (+621): Packers +2.5 - Under 44.5 (Bears-Eagles) - Colts -4.5

Packers at Lions, Thursday, 1 p.m.

The Packers are an underdog for the first time since losing to the Eagles in last year’s playoffs, and Matt LeFleur has compiled a 24-13-1 ATS record (64.5%) as an underdog, easily the top mark among active coaches. And with a 20-18 straight-up record, LeFleur is the only coach in the Super Bowl era to post a winning record as an underdog. The Lions are slumping, with the offensive line struggling during a 16-9 loss to the Eagles two games back, and then trailing to the Giants 27-17 in the fourth quarter before rallying dramatically to win in OT last week. The Packers defense (top five in most categories) gets after the quarterback. After going through a two-game slide earlier this month, scoring only 20 combined points in consecutive losses, Green Bay’s offense is back on track (50 combined points in the last two games). Give us the Pack on the upswing.

Pick: Packers +2.5

Bears at Eagles, Friday, 3 p.m.

No faith in high-scoring output from dysfunctional Eagles offense, but can’t recommend injury-riddled Bears defense. Or a Chicago offense that has a negative 3-point differential on the season despite being 8-3, recording five wins while trailing in the fourth quarter. Bears have yet to beat a team with a winning record, and this looks like a good bounce-back spot for an Eagles defense that surrendered nearly 500 yards to Dallas last week. The Eagles will look to get their rushing attack going – they’ll need it vs better teams down the road – an expected low-scoring affair.

Pick: Under 44.5

Texans at Colts, Sunday, 1 pm.

The Texans moved past .500 with their fourth win in the last five games last week, defeating the Bills at home. But they haven’t played well on the road, the lone win over the last seven weeks being an ugly 16-13 victory at Tennessee, and Texas is the lowest scoring team in the league with a winning record (22.1 points per game), entering with a poor 44.1% red zone efficiency rate (31st). The Colts exit an overtime loss at Kansas City, where they played arguably as well as Houston has all season, and Indy has been better at home. The Colts top the NFL in scoring (31 points per game) and rank 3rd in red zone efficiency (66.7%). One weakness for the Texans' formidable defense has been explosive runs, and Jonathon Taylor can exploit. The Texans won’t be able to match points as the Colts get back on track following a pair of losses in the last three games.

Pick: Colts -4.5