NFL Week 7: 49ers vs. Patriots odds, picks & predictions

For the first time since his departure from New England in 2017, San Francisco 49ers quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo will confront his former team, when the Niners visit the Patriots in Foxborough on Sunday.

Once the presumed successor to Tom Brady, Garoppolo will go head to head with a quarterback few expected to see in a Patriots uniform before the offseason.

Cam Newton, the leader of New England's new-look offense, has experienced his share of ups and downs during the 2020 season. In the passing game, he has struggled with turnovers and has tallied just two touchdown passes to four interceptions, including two in last week's surprise home loss to Denver.

In the run game, Newton is a different beast. Through four games, he has rushed for 225 yards and five touchdowns. The only quarterbacks with more rushing yards — Kyler Murray, Lamar Jackson, and Daniel Jones — have played at least two more games than Newton, who missed the Chiefs matchup because of a positive COVID-19 test.  

Newton’s performance in the ground game will be paramount to New England’s success against San Francisco’s defense, which has held steady, despite a slew of injuries.

49ers vs. Patriots injury report

The Niners are lucky to own a 3-3 record, though they still sit fourth in the loaded NFC West.  

Garoppolo, tight end George Kittle, receiver Deebo Samuel, and running back Raheem Mostert have all been sidelined for at least one game this season because of injuries. NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year Nick Bosa will miss the remainder of the season with a torn ACL, and cornerback Richard Sherman, defensive end Dee Ford, and running back Tevin Coleman have all been relegated to injured reserve.

Mostert missed Week 3 and Week 4 because of a knee issue and is now out of Sunday’s lineup because of a high-ankle sprain. Linebacker Kwon Alexander and safety Jaquiski Tartt also missed Thursday’s practice with injuries, and tackle Trent Williams (ankle) and running back Jeff Wilson Jr. (calf) were limited.

For New England, offensive lineman Jermaine Eluemunor was the only player who sat out practice because of an injury (ankle). Running back James White did not practice for the second straight day for an undisclosed, non-injury-related reason, while receiver Julian Edelman (knee) and offensive lineman Shaq Mason (calf) were limited in practice.

Running back Sony Michel is expected to miss his second straight game, after he tested positive for COVID-19.

The absence of Michel will leave Newton, Rex Burkhead, Damien Harris, and James White to carry the run game. In Michel’s last outing, against the Raiders, he ran for 117 yards — the same number Newton, Harris, Burkhead, and White combined for against the Broncos.

In the defeat against Denver, Newton led the team with 76 rushing yards and a score. Harris, White, and Burkhead averaged just 2.6 yards per carry on 15 attempts, behind a makeshift offensive line. That line also allowed Newton to get sacked four times (a season high).

The Niners average just 1.7 sacks per game, a sharp decline from the defense’s 3.2 average in 2019.

As for San Francisco’s run game, the Niners will look to Jerick McKinnon and rookie JaMycal Hasty to step up. Otherwise, Garoppolo will be forced to battle the Patriots’ ninth-ranked passing defense.

49ers vs. Patriots betting trends

New England has not faced the 49ers since 2016, when Brady and New England went on the road to pull out a 30-17 win against Colin Kaepernick and the Niners. 

The 49ers hold an 8-5 lead all-time in the series, but the Patriots are 3-1 against San Francisco with Bill Belichick as head coach.

This season, New England is 2-1 against the spread as a home favorite, and 1-1 ATS following a loss.

The Under is 4-1 in the 49ers’ last five games as an underdog, while the Under is 7-1 in the Patriots' last eight games when they score fewer than 15 points in their previous matchup. 

In a matchup of two top-10 defenses, the spotlight will shine on the run game, where both teams are shorthanded. However, Newton will shake off the rust from last week’s game — his first action since he tested positive for the coronavirus in early October — and lead the Patriots to a close win. 

Score prediction: Patriots 24, 49ers 20

Pick: Patriots -2, Under 44.5

Wager on Week 7 of the 2020 NFL season at BetAmerica!