Over/Under Football Betting Explained: 2025 Guide to Betting Totals

When you place a bet on an NFL game, there are a near limitless number of possibilities. We all know about the moneyline and the point spread, but there is another outcome the two teams factor in: the final score and the total number of points.

The over/under bet is one of the more popular options among NFL game bettors. A winning bet slip comes down to predicting whether the total combined score will be more (over) or less (under) the total number the sportsbook makes. This sports betting niche is growing in popularity among bettors, so it helps to know about the over/under or “total bet” and how bettors win using it.

What is an Over/Under Bet?

In college football, NFL games, and other sports betting, the over/under hinges on the combined score between the two teams. This type of wager is a nice alternative to traditional sports betting featuring the point spread or moneyline. It is a standard bet, the line the sportsbook sets – usually in half point increments – being the dividing line between a win and a loss.

The sportsbook making odds will set the expected total points scored between the teams. A total bet simply requires bettors to decide whether the teams combine for more points (over) or less points (under) than the total line. It is a simple way to make a wager, and the odds are always the same, generally speaking – roughly -110 for each total number.

How to Read an Over/Under Bet

Remember that an over/under bet comes down to the total points scored in a game. More often than not, it isn’t an exact number, rather a total determined by half point increments. Bettors then wager that the total points scored will be more or less than the betting totals laid out by the sportsbook.

To gain a better understanding of an over/under bet, it helps to know what an example looks like. Let’s take a look at a game between the Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills:

The first thing that should jump out is that the total number of points scored by the sportsbook is a half point (52.5). This is because an exact total number could potentially lead to a tie or a “push.” With half point increments, every bet will definitively win or lose.

Winning the over/under bet depends on which side of the point total you bet on. For instance, a wager on the over would require both teams to score 53 points or more. The under wins if the total bet is less than 53 points. If the final score is 31-20 Bills, the under wins.

This concept transfers to a variety of indoor and outdoor sports. For instance, NBA betting totals follow the same concept. The sportsbook takes the average NBA total and sets the line. It is the same type of bet as an NFL over/under. And like most NFL over/under bets, an NBA total is set so that there are no pushes, only a wager that will win or lose.

What Happens if the Total Combined Score is the Same as the Set Line?

Whether it be a basketball game or football game, there are times in sports betting where the total bet will be an exact number. The concept is still the same – bet on more or fewer points in the game – but there is another outcome to your wager other than win or lose: a push.

In rare instances, the actual number of points from both teams will be the same amount as what the bookmaker has set. In this instance, the total bet would be neither a win, nor a loss. Instead, the wager would be a push. In this instance, the sportsbook would return your wager, and everything would be a wash.

How do Sportsbooks Determine the Number of Points Scored?

Though prop bets – particularly, player props – are quite popular, bettors flock to betting totals instead. Though the odds are generally the same, guessing whether the total bet will see more or fewer points can be intriguing. That said, it helps to know how the bookmakers set the odds and betting lines.

Sports betting sites will hire a set of odds experts in order to determine the over/under. The total bet is comprised based on how each team plays, defensive stats (like defensive efficiency), offensive stats, and more. In the end, the over/under is carefully crafted and set in a way that will garner the most action in a direction that will give the sportsbook a win.

Is it Better to Bet the Over or the Under?

Before making a wager, most betters are no doubt curious whether it is better to take the over or the under in an over/under bet. The unfortunate thing for bettors is that the odds are usually the same type for a reason. Generally speaking, the over/under is basically evenly split. For instance, the 2020 NFL season saw an over/under record of 125-126-3, with overs hitting 49.8% of the time.

The simple fact of the matter is that an over/under bet can swing in any given game. Odds are set at -110 – even money – for a reason. Any wager has an equal chance to win or lose on a game-to-game basis. Live betting can change the odds a bit, but each game is different.

Tips for NFL Totals Betting

If you plan to make the over/under bet a regular part of your sports betting repertoire, a little knowledge goes a long way. A few helpful tips will give your wager a better chance to win, so let’s see what tips can make your next over/under wager a successful one.

Consider the Weather

Perhaps no factor relating to the over/under can impact a game like weather. Given that football starts at the tail end of summer and stretches through the winter, weather can be quite disruptive. When it comes to the over/under, it can wind up being the deciding factor.

Any game that you are interested in placing a wager on, check the weather report first. Though a game with heavy rain or snow isn’t guaranteed to be a low-scoring affair, the odds are pretty good that it will be. A quick search will reveal a detailed weather report for each game, so never go into a wager unprepared.

Know the Matchups

In the average NFL game, both sides are close enough to one another that it can be tough trying to figure out who will win. The same goes for the over/under. The talent disparity between two teams is so slim that either one could influence whether the over or under will win.

Take a close look at the matchup when making an over/under bet. Noticing a mismatch – like a top passing team going up against a weak secondary – can provide crucial information. A game between two offenses that are struggling may be more likely to go under, for instance. There are so many factors in making an over/under bet that you have to analyze everything to ensure that you have considered all the necessary factors.

Time of Day Can Matter

In recent years, the NFL schedule has featured more of a shift to “prime time.” This slot includes the Thursday Night Football game, Sunday Night Football, and one (sometimes two) Monday Night Football Game. While that might seem unimportant, it is actually a critical piece of information when it comes to the over/under.

In the lats five seasons, the under has managed to hit in nearly 57 percent of all primetime matchups. Whether there are any real factors that contribute to this is up to debate, but it has a clear impact on the over/under. If you are looking for an over/under to make, the safest play would be to take the under in each primetime game.

Watch the Line

Sportsbooks often set the lines for the next week of NFL games late Sunday or early Monday. That said, odds will change over the course of the week leading up to the game. Injuries, suspensions, changing weather reports, and a litany of other factors can see a game’s odds shift one way or another. More often than not, the shift is minimal but there is a chance to see a major change.

If you plan to make an over/under bet, watch the lines carefully. It is not uncommon for the point total to move up or down a point or two in the process. While that might not seem like a big deal, that can mean the difference between a win and a loss. Follow the lines carefully to gain better insight as to what the sportsbooks see in the matchup.

Check the Injury Report

It is tough enough to win an over/under bet as it is. If you go into every game blind, the odds stack up against you. One of the best things you can do before making an over/under bet is to check the injury report for both teams.

Depending on where in the season things are, it won’t be uncommon to see a lot of names on the injury report. That said, significant injuries where a player is guaranteed to be out can play havoc on the over/under. Peruse injury reports and don’t get taken by surprise when a team’s star quarterback is missing in action.

Make Your Next Over/Under Bet with Confidence

Making an over/under bet is a great alternative when it comes to the betting action in a football game. Betting on the final score – the total combined score – removes rooting interests in a given game and changes one’s outlook on the teams involved.

Whether your over bet hits or the under wins, placing a wager on the total number of points can provide a bit of a change for bettors and the average football game. Check the odds, look into both teams, and make a better bet knowing that you have analyzed the many factors that make up the average game.