Packers vs. Cardinals: The best Aaron Rodgers prop bets for TNF

This week's installment of Thursday Night Football promises to be must-see TV. The 6-1 Green Bay Packers travel to Glendale to face the league’s only unbeaten team, the Arizona Cardinals, in a game which should produce serious fireworks.

Two of the best teams in the league go toe-to-toe with Green Bay attempting to put the brakes on the Cardinals' high-powered offense. Arizona is ranked fourth in the league in points per game, while the Packers have scored at least 24 points in six straight games.

The Cardinals are favoured by a touchdown at home and are 4-2 against Aaron Rodgers, who will be without receivers Davante Adams and Allen Lazard. The odds are stacked against A-Rod, but you can never write off one of the league’s G.O.A.Ts can you?

We've examined the matchup closely, and have the three best Aaron Rodgers player prop bets below.

Under/Over 255.5 Passing Yards

Even with Davante Adams this has not been a vintage Aaron Rodgers campaign. He’s averaging just 244 yards per game, which is only good enough for 20th in the NFL, behind the likes of Daniel Jones, Baker Mayfield, and Jalen Hurts. He’s simply throwing the ball less, attempting just 31.6 attempts per game (ranked 23rd in the league), which is the fewest attempts per game for a season since he took over as the Packers starter in 2008.

You’d have to think that without Adams and Lazard, that number will decline again on Thursday night. Those two receivers have accounted for 43% of Green Bay’s 156 completed passes this season, so don’t underestimate the impact of them missing out.

The Cardinals have the third strongest pass defense in the league, allowing just 201 yards per game through the air, which is another reason why Green Bay might lean on Aaron Jones and the running game rather than A-Rod. In four regular season games against the Cardinals (and with Adams in all four) Rodgers has averaged 20.3 completions and just 209.2 passing yards. He’s never topped 235 passing yards in a regular season game against Arizona.

There is no doubt Rodgers is one of the league’s best, but traveling on a short week without your top receiver to face a top three ranked pass defense, in a season when you’re throwing less than ever? Yeah, take the Under.

Pick: Under 255.5 Passing Yards (-114)

Over/Under 1.5 Touchdown Passes

Green Bay is projected to get 22 points in this game, but how will the Packers set up when they get into the red zone? They’ve had 69 plays from inside 20 yards this season, 52% of which have been passes and resulted in 12 touchdowns, while 48% have been rushes which have resulted in four touchdowns. Focussing solely on the passing plays, 15 of the 36 passes went to either Lazard or Adams, who combined had a 42% target share inside the 20.

Despite some modest yardage numbers, only six QBs have thrown for more TDs than Rodgers this season and the three-time MVP has six straight games with at least two touchdowns a game, but Rodgers has historically struggled against the Cardinals. He’s managed a multiple passing touchdown game just once in four matches with Arizona, and the Cardinals have allowed the eighth-fewest passing touchdowns this year, at an average of 1.29 a game. The value lies in the Under.

Pick: Under 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (+114)

Over/Under 9.5 Rushing Yards

Rodgers is 37 years old, meaning I am a solid five years younger than him, and my body certainly hasn’t endured the punishment his has over the years. Professional football is not for the faint hearted, and I certainly wouldn’t want to be in his shoes as Chandler Jones and JJ Watt come at me full speed.

The Cardinals' defense have hit the opposition QB on average more than six times per game this season, and recorded 19 sacks so far.

Meanwhile, Rodgers is running less and less. In 2018 he ran an average of 16.8 yards per game, a stat that dropped to 11.4 yards a game in 2019, and again to 9.3 yards a game in 2020. This season he’s averaging just 6.3 yards a game and despite going for 17 yards against Washington and 19 yards against Chicago in the last two weeks, A-Rod had previously gone a six-game stretch without rushing more than 10 yards a game.   

Rodgers is going to come under pressure in a hostile environment on Thursday, but there aren’t any flies on the Packers QB, and he’ll be making sure to look after himself with smart play. That means not using his legs unless necessary, so I’m happy to take the Under again.

Pick: Under 9.5 Rushing Yards (-115)