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Packers vs. Cardinals: TNF odds market update

Green Bay Packers running back Aaron Jones. (Photo by Larry Radloff/Icon Sportswire)

Ashley Anderson

October 28th, 2021

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Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers will head into Thursday Night Football as a 6.5-point underdog against the league's lone undefeated team, the Arizona Cardinals.

For the first time since 1974, the Cardinals are 7-0, and face a short-handed Packers team on a six-win streak. 

Both Arizona and Green Bay laid waste to weaker opposition in Week 7. The Cardinals downed one-win Houston, 31-5, and the Packers bested 2-5 Washington, 24-10.

Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray, the favorite to win the Most Valuable Player Award, and reigning MVP Aaron Rodgers both enjoyed quality performances, with three touchdown passes apiece.

In Thursday's matchup, both of these quarterbacks will go up against top 10 passing defenses, but Rodgers is at a greater disadvantage, since receivers Davante Adams and Allen Lazard were placed on the reserve/COVID-19 list this week.

Green Bay opened as a 3.5-point underdog, but the line has shifted to 6.5 since Adams and Lazard were ruled out.

The Packers still have a fighting chance, with one of the best quarterbacks in the league running their offense, but they will need a lot to go right against this red-hot Cardinals squad.

As we near kickoff of the Packers vs. Cardinals on Thursday Night Football, let's see how the public is betting the moneyline, point spread, and totals at TwinSpires Sports.

Packers vs. Cardinals moneyline betting percentages

Betting publicGreen Bay Packers moneylineArizona Cardinals moneyline
Percentage of tickets
41%
59%
Percentage of handle
54%
46%

Even with Green Bay at less than 100%, the majority of handle (54%) is on the Packers moneyline for Thursday's matchup.

The majority of tickets, on the other hand, have been placed on Arizona to win outright. 

The Cardinals own the NFL's No. 3 pass defense and are tied with Buffalo for the fewest points allowed (16.3), while the offense ranks fourth in points per game (32.1).

The Packers rank seventh in total yards surrendered, sixth against the pass, but are 22nd against the run.

In Sunday's win over Washington, the defense let quarterback Taylor Heinicke account for 95 of his team's 195 rushing yards.

A similar defensive meltdown against the Cardinals would doom Green Bay, considering Arizona ranks fifth in the league in rushing yards per game (136.6) and boasts a dual-threat quarterback who has run for three scores this season.

Packers vs. Cardinals moneyline betting percentages

Betting publicGreen Bay Packers moneylineArizona Cardinals moneyline
Percentage of tickets
41%
59%
Percentage of handle
54%
46%

Spread bettors are less divided on which team they think will cover in Thursday's contest.

More than 60% of all tickets and handle are on Arizona to win by seven points or more.

The Cardinals are 5-0 against the spread in their last five games overall but just 2-5 ATS in their last seven against teams with a winning record.

Green Bay is 6-0 ATS in its last six games overall and 5-1-1 ATS in its last seven Thursday Night Football matchups.

Packers vs. Cardinals moneyline betting percentages

Betting publicGreen Bay Packers moneylineArizona Cardinals moneyline
Percentage of tickets
41%
59%
Percentage of handle
54%
46%

Bettors also appear confident this game will produce a fair amount of scoring, with around 60% of tickets and handle on the Over (50.5).

The Over has hit in six of Arizona's last eight games against teams with a winning record, while the Under is 4-0 in Green Bay's last four games overall.

The Under is also 5-1 in the Cardinals' last six home games against the Packers.

Most popular prop bet: Zach Ertz anytime touchdown

As for prop bets, the most popular wager has been on recent acquisition Zach Ertz to score a touchdown (+260) Thursday.

The former Philadelphia Eagles tight end was traded to Arizona last week and quickly made a splash with his new teammates.

Zach Ertz gets his first TD as a Cardinal❗️

(via @NFL)pic.twitter.com/hIF9c5m6k9

— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) October 24, 2021

In Arizona's win over Houston, Ertz tied receiver A.J. Green with a team-high 66 receiving yards on just three catches. One of those receptions resulted in a 47-yard score, the longest touchdown catch of Ertz's career.

Through seven games, the Packers have given up three touchdowns to tight ends, including two to Juwan Johnson in a Week 1 loss to the New Orleans Saints.

Green Bay opponents also average two passing touchdowns per game, tied for seventh most in the league.

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