Patriots' Super Bowl odds skyrocket after loss to Dolphins

In perhaps the most bewildering result of the 2019 season, the Patriots were handed a 27-24 defeat in Foxborough by the Miami Dolphins, who finished the campaign 5-11. That knocked New England’s record down to 12-4, but more importantly allowed the Chiefs to sneak into the playoffs the No. 2 seed in the AFC and secure a first-round bye after their Week 17 defeat of the Chargers.

The Patriots are now stuck playing Wild Card weekend against the Titans, a team that closed the year 7-3, on Saturday night at Gillette Stadium. Oddsmakers don’t necessarily believe that New England will struggle with Tennessee, but the fact that the Patriots have to play an extra game in the postseason adds doubt to their viability as Super Bowl contenders. Listed at +500 on December 27, the Pats are now +950 to secure their seventh Lombardi Trophy.

Odds to win the Super Bowl

New England's defense is still staunch despite latest setback

Bill Belichick has earned his reputation as a great gameplanner, but it’s possible that he and his players got caught looking past Miami after they slaughtered their divisional opponent 43-0 in Week 2. However, it would be foolish to say New England’s defense is suddenly weak after it allowed 27 points to Ryan Fitzpatrick and the Dolphins. The Patriots’ stoppers were first in both total defense and scoring defense in 2019 and are tied for fourth among playoff teams in sacks.

Brady is in decline

Tom Brady will go down as one of the all-time greats, but Father Time appears to have caught up with him at age 42, as he suffered his worst statistical season since 2013. He saw significant decreases in his completion rate, yards per attempt, total touchdowns and passer rating. His team finished an uninspiring 15th in total offense this year.

The Titans’ 21st-ranked defense by yards allowed per game will probably capitulate Saturday night, but Brady and company will be hard-pressed to succeed down the road. The top-seeded Ravens, second-seeded Chiefs and fourth-seeded Texans all defeated New England at some point this season.

Don't sleep on the Saints

Those looking for a value option could do worse than the Saints (+600), whose only tough game in the NFC would appear to be with the top-seeded 49ers. They’re eight-point favorites at home against Minnesota this week and would face a vulnerable Green Bay squad the following week, assuming they win Sunday.

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