Rams vs. Packers: NFL Week 12 betting odds, preview, and pick
Los Angeles Rams running back Darrell Henderson (27) carries the ball. (Photo by Michael Allio/Icon Sportswire)
November 22nd, 2021
A big NFC matchup takes place this Sunday afternoon when the Los Angeles Rams head north to Lambeau Field to take on the Green Bay Packers.
The Packers are 8-3 straight-up, but have lost two of their last three games. They are 9-2 against the spread after failing to cover against Minnesota in Week 11 and seeing their 9-game cover streak finally break.
The Rams, meanwhile, are 7-3 straight-up, but just 4-6 against the spread. They are coming off a bye after losing back-to-back games in double-digit fashion to the Tennessee Titans and San Francisco 49ers.
Let’s break down this game and decide which team will be capping their Thanksgiving weekend with a tasty "W’".
Expect a Battle in the Trenches
This game features some of the most talented players in the NFL, with Aaron Rodgers, Davante Adams, Aaron Donald, and Jalen Ramsey highlighting each teams’ respective rosters.
When breaking down this game, however, it appears as though the deciding factor will be how well the Packers’ offensive line deals with the Rams’ defensive front. Rodgers is dealing with a toe injury that is hampering his ability to take off and run, putting additional pressure on the offensive line.
From @GMFB: #Packers QB Aaron Rodgers will limp around another week on that significant toe injury, while the team appears to have lost talented OL Elgton Jenkins for the season. pic.twitter.com/1W98feYNM7
— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) November 22, 2021
In the loss against the Vikings, Packers’ lineman Elgton Jenkins went down with a knee injury and is likely lost for the season. He has been a versatile and reliable protector, and his loss could be troublesome for a Packers front that is still waiting on David Bakhtiari to return.
The Rams’ defense is sixth in the league in yards allowed per play and sixth in sack percentage. Donald is a well-known wrecking ball, while A’Shawn Robinson and Leonard Floyd pose plenty of danger coming off the edge. If the Packers struggle to slow down the pass rush, Rodgers may be in for a long day.
Rams vs. Packers Key Injuries
| Los Angeles Rams | Green Bay Packers |
|---|
WR Robert Woods: Out (knee) | OT David Bakhtiari: Questionable (knee) |
DT Sebastian Joseph-Day: Out (pectoral) | OL Elgton Jenkins: Doubtful (knee) |
LB Travin Howard: Out (hamstring) | QB Aaron Rodgers: Probable (toe) |
RB Cam Akers: Out (Achilles) | RB Aaron Jones: Out (knee) |
Rams and Packers Betting Trends
- The Packers are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games vs. the Rams
- The Rams are 4-1 straight-up in their last five road games
- Seven of the last eight Packers' games have gone Under the total
- The Packers are 10-1 straight-up in their last 11 home games
- The Packers are undefeated ATS at home in 2021
Injuries are Catching up to the Packers
The Rams have looked horrible in their last two outings, losing big as favorites against the Titans and Niners. Now they must take to the road to play a Packers team that has been outstanding most of the year and untouchable at home.
While first blush bettors are likely apt to go with the home team, injuries are hurting the Packers’ ability to play at their highest level at this point in the season.
The Rams enter this game relatively healthy and will benefit tremendously from the bye week to prepare for this matchup. The Packers’ secondary and offensive line have too many bodies at less than 100%, and those are the worst positions to be short-handed against this Rams team. In what could easily be a first-look matchup at a later postseason game, look for the visiting Rams to put enough pressure on Rodgers to slow down this potent Packers offense and sneak away with a win.
Score prediction: Rams 27, Packers 23
NFL Week 12 pick: Rams
Rams vs. Packers pick powered by the Quant Edge
Our predictive engine is calling for the Packers to win outright and cover the spread.
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