Ravens vs. Browns: The best betting props for MNF

This week’s edition of Monday Night Football sees a fierce clash between AFC North rivals in the Baltimore Ravens and Cleveland Browns. The Ravens steamrolled the Browns in Week 1, 38-6. But since then, Cleveland has shot to 9-3, while the Ravens are 7-5.

Dig a little deeper though, and you’ll see the Browns have done a lot of damage against weaker teams. The Ravens have arguably had a better season. Baltimore is 100 points better than the Browns this year in point differential, and will look to reaffirm their dominance at FirstEnergy Stadium, although the Browns know a win will guarantee them a playoff spot.

The Ravens are somewhere close to normality now after a crazy few weeks stemming from a Coronavirus outbreak, and now they roll into Cleveland pretty much back to full strength.

Jarvis Landry Receptions

Since Odell Beckham Jr. went down with an ACL injury, Browns wide receiver Jarvis Landry has seen an uptick in targets from quarterback Baker Mayfield. Dating back to Week 8, when “OBJ” was on the shelf, Landry has had 39 targets through five games. In the last two weeks, he has seen 11 looks against the Jacksonville Jaguars and 10 targets against the Tennessee Titans.

The Ravens’ defense is clearly a different beast compared to Jacksonville and Tennessee – and this will be a far tougher task for the Browns through the air – but Landry should still see plenty of action from Mayfield.

Looking back over the last two games, when the Ravens have had the same cornerback threesome as they’ll have this weekend, Landry has had five catches for 61 yards, and seven catches for 74 yards, which is handy enough. He’ll likely see a lot of Marlon Humphrey on Monday, and he has allowed 17 receptions for 147 yards in his last three games.

It’s tough to pick an angle on Landry’s receiving yards on Monday night, but he should be able to keep his reception momentum going in OBJ’s absence.

Pick: Over 4.5 receptions (-130)

Lamar Jackson Rushing Yards

Lamar Jackson might not have been as electrifying as people expected this year through the air, but he has not lost any of the shine in the rushing game, as he’s happy to take the rock and run more in recent weeks.

Since the Ravens’ bye in Week 7, Jackson has had a minimum of 11 rushing attempts in each of the five games and hasn’t posted fewer than 51 rushing yards. In fact, he’s only dipped underneath 50 rushing yards in two games this season. In Week 13, he took off 13 times for 94 yards and a touchdown against the hapless Cowboys.

In his last three games against the Browns, Jackson’s run for 45 yards (Week 1, 2020), 103 yards (Week 16, 2019), and 66 yards (Week 4, 2019). Expect him to take off a good few times here. He should be able to beat this line.  

Pick: Over 54.5 rushing yards (-110)

Mark Andrews Touchdowns

Mark Andrews is back off the COVID-19 list and can feast on the Browns. He has five touchdowns in his last three games against them, so it’s clear the big tight end has their number.

The Browns have given up nine touchdowns to tight ends this year, which ranks as the second-most in the league, behind only the New York Jets. Tight ends have been targeted 24 times in the red zone against the Browns as teams look to take advantage.

Tight ends have averaged almost six catches per game against the Browns, which is again the second-most in the league. All signs are pointing towards a big game for Andrews now that he’s active again.

The last time he was on the field, he went for 96 yards and a touchdown against the Titans. He can get back into the end zone here.  

Pick: Anytime Touchdown (+125)

Nick Chubb Rushing Yards

The Ravens may not be the immovable force they once were, but they are still a tough matchup against the run, and that is going to temper our excitement about Nick Chubb on Monday night.  

The Ravens have allowed 4.3 yards per carry, but teams aren’t running against them, averaging just 21 carries a game. In his last two matches against Baltimore, Chubb has a combined 25 carries for 101 yards, which is another tick in the “concerned” list.

Chubb’s quality isn’t in doubt. He has racked up at least 80 yards per game in the last four matches since the Browns’ bye week. In three of those games, he went for at least 114 yards. He had a minimum of 18 carries in each of those games though, and we might see that number drop when the Ravens are in town.

It’s not an easy one, but I think the projection for Chubb is too high this week.

Pick: Under 77.5 rushing yards (-110)

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