Scott Shapiro's NFC Championship Game preview
San Francisco 49ers linebacker Fred Warner. (Photo by Cody Glenn/Icon Sportswire)
January 16th, 2020
The top two seeds in the NFC will meet for the second time this season, when the Packers head west to take on the 49ers for the right to play in Super Bowl LIV.
Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers, Sunday, 6:40 p.m. ET (FOX)
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|
Green Bay Packers | +7.5 | +275 | Over 46 |
San Francisco 49ers | -7.5 | -360 | Under 46 |
The Niners dominated Green Bay from start to finish in their initial meeting in Week 12, behind the play of the NFL’s best defensive front. Linebacker Fred Warner forced an Aaron Rodgers fumble deep in Packers’ territory on the game’s first possession, which led to a Tevin Coleman touchdown run, and the NFC West champs never looked back in a 37-8 Sunday-night win.
Fred Warner gets to Aaron Rodgers, who fumbles and the #49ers recover on the #Packers 2-yard line. Niners score with Tevin Coleman a play later and lead 7-0. #GBvsSF #49wz (🎥@NFL) pic.twitter.com/wj1y5JJ1UM
— Peter Panacy (@PeterPanacy) November 25, 2019
If Green Bay wants to have more success on offense this time around, it will need to protect its franchise quarterback much better. San Francisco recorded five sacks in the initial encounter and had Rodgers running for his life throughout. Giving Rodgers more time, though, will be easier said than done, especially for the Packers' guards, who have struggled often in 2019.
Rodgers did not have a great regular season by his standards, but he played extremely well in the Packers' Divisional Round victory against the Seahawks. Performing at that level will be much more of challenge in the NFC Championship Game. Not only is the game away from home against a much better pass rush, but there is little chance Robert Saleh’s defense will make life as easy for star wide receiver Davante Adams.
Rodgers said it perfectly post-game. Davante Adams was on one against the Seahawks tonight pic.twitter.com/C4I6ZSobj0
— Joe (day 1 Jayden Reed fan) (@joepkipp) January 13, 2020
Adams caught 11 passes for 160 yards and two touchdowns against Seattle’s beatable secondary, but is certain to draw much more attention from the Niners. Green Bay will need some of its complementing options to step up and make big plays if the Packers want to have any success moving the ball. I am not confident they will be up to the challenge.
Expecting the Packers to have consistent success on offense is wishful thinking, so they will need to play significantly better on defense than the last time they visited Levi’s Stadium. This can best be achieved with consistent pressure on Jimmy Garoppolo. The Niners quarterback can be effective, especially over the middle, if he is given time, but he is much more erratic under pressure. Green Bay defensive coordinator Mike Pettine does not blitz a lot, but he needs to find ways to get to Jimmy G.
It is difficult to blow a team out twice in the same season, but I can't back Green Bay after its performance in late November. If I had to endorse a side, it would be San Francisco, but laying more than a touchdown, considering I do not trust Garoppolo, is something I am unwilling to do. I have confidence the 49ers defense will bring it and prevent the Pack from finding the end zone more than once or twice. Look for a relatively low-scoring game, where Rodgers has a shot at a backdoor cover because of an improved effort from Za’Darius Smith and the Green Bay defense.
Pick: Under 46
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