Scott Shapiro's Thursday Night Football preview: Cowboys at Bears

After a strong first 11 weeks, I had my second poor showing in a row with my selections on BetAmerica in Week 13. Fortunately I was able to avoid a disastrous Sunday, as the Chiefs blew out the Raiders at Arrowhead Stadium to close the day. I am hopeful I can get back into a groove and end the regular season on a high note, and it starts Thursday night.

The Week 14 lid lifter features two teams that were considered contenders in the NFC at the start of 2019, but they have failed to live up to expectations over the first three-quarters of the season. Chicago and Dallas still have four games to make up for their subpar campaigns and can still make the playoffs, but they need to right the ship Thursday.

Dallas Cowboys at Chicago Bears, 8:20 p.m. ET, FOX

The Cowboys have one of the league’s best rosters from top to bottom and were 5-3 at the midway point of the season, but they have lost three of their last four contests, including an ugly 26-15 defeat at home to Buffalo on Thanksgiving. Luckily for Dallas its 6-6 record still has the franchise atop the pitiful NFC East.

The Cowboys outgained the Bills 426-356 on Turkey Day, but they were -2 in turnover differential, failed to convert on two key fourth downs and placekicker Brett Maher missed two field goals, which paved the way to the outright loss as a 6.5-point favorite. Dallas continued the trend of losing to quality opposition, but the good news for the Cowboys is they will take on another team that has had its share of struggles Thursday night.

Chicago went 12-4 and won the NFC North going away in head coach Matt Nagy’s first season a year ago, but things have not gone well in 2019. Third-year quarterback Mitchell Trubisky has taken a significant step backward and the Bears offensive line has struggled to create running lanes for David Montgomery and Tarik Cohen. The Washington Redskins are the only team in the NFC with fewer points through 12 games.

The Bears’ defense has not made nearly as many big plays as it did in 2018, but it has definitely been the team’s strength and has held opponents to fewer than 18 points per game. However, it was far from a shutdown unit against the Lions' third-string quarterback David Blough on Thanksgiving, and the Bears have not faced any teams with the star power of the Cowboys over their last several games. I do not anticipate Dallas scoring 30 points, but I expect the Cowboys to have some success moving the football.

Games can often be won in the trenches, and the Cowboys defensive front has a serious advantage against a porous Chicago offensive line. Look for Robert Quinn, Demarcus Lawrence and their crew to shut down the Bears' 28th-ranked rushing attack (79.3 yards per game) and force Trubisky into a number of key errors at Soldier Field.

There is a lot of pressure on Dallas and head coach Jason Garrett, as they look to hang onto their one-game lead in the NFC East, but going on the road may be a good thing for the Cowboys. They are 4-2 ATS away from home in 2019 and 8-4 as road favorites over the last three years.

It is difficult to be confident with the Cowboys, but their defense will play a big game and their offense will make enough plays to come away from Chicago with a win and the cover.

Pick: Dallas (-3)

Scott Shapiro’s 2019 NFL record ATS on BetAmerica heading into Week 14: 49-45-1 (Last week: 3-6)