Scott Shapiro's Thursday Night Football preview: Jets at Ravens

After a week of action that saw one of the most entertaining games of the year in New Orleans and some extremely poor officiating throughout the league, NFL fans get a mismatch on paper to kick off Week 15.

New York Jets at Baltimore Ravens, 8:20 p.m. ET, FOX

I did not expect the Ravens to take such a huge step forward in 2019, after they were handled in the wild-card round last year by the Chargers. I was flat out wrong. Both their offense and defense are much better than I anticipated, and their coaching staff has been phenomenal.

It made sense for second-year quarterback Lamar Jackson to take a step forward after an awful performance in their 23-17 loss to Los Angeles in January, but the fact he is the heavy favorite (-800) to win Most Valuable Player is a credit to him, as well as offensive coordinator Greg Roman, who crafted one of the best rushing offenses the NFL has seen in years.

When a team loses four defensive starters with the quality of Eric Weddle, C.J.Mosley, Terrell Suggs and Za’Darius Smith, it is fair to assume it will take a step back. That appeared to be the case at the start of the 2019 campaign, but after a bumpy start to the season, defensive coordinator Don “Wink” Martindale has turned his new-look group into a shut-down unit over the last several weeks. The Ravens struggle a bit to stop the outside running game, but otherwise have a tough defensive group.

Add into the mix one of the league’s best special teams groups, and the Ravens are the deserving favorite (+230) to win the Super Bowl with three weeks left in the regular season. Their Week 15 opponent has not had things go quite as well in 2019, to say the least.

Many thought the Jets would win eight games or more in 2019, behind new head coach Adam Gase and second-year quarterback Sam Darnold. They are minus-75 in point differential, are ranked toward the bottom in almost all relevant offensive categories and have little left to play for at 5-8. They head south down Interstate 95 with a number of key injuries and the look of a team that could get blown out on national television.

Laying more than two touchdowns is never ideal in the NFL, especially in a game where the teams have only a few days to prepare, but the Jets just match up poorly against the Ravens.

A quick glance at the Jets rush defense suggests they have one of the league’s best units against the run, but they have seen nothing close to the ground game of Baltimore. The Jets have not faced a top 10 rushing attack since their 24-22 win against the Cowboys in Week 6. With safety Jamal Adams unlikely to suit up because of an ankle injury, New York stands little chance of limiting the league’s top-ranked running game.

On offense the Jets matchup even worse. New York does not have the personnel to exploit Baltimore on the ground and its receiving corps of Robby Anderson, Jamison Crowder and Demaryius Thomas is likely to struggle to get open and make plays against one of the league’s best secondaries. Outside of potential garbage-time production, it is hard to envision the Jets having much success at M&T Stadium.

New York has covered just one of its last five games away from home, and that was against the lowly Redskins in one of Dwayne Haskins' first starts in the NFL. If the Ravens come ready to play, they should run the Jets out of the stadium.

Pick: Baltimore -15

Scott Shapiro’s 2019 NFL record ATS on BetAmerica heading into Week 15: 52-48-2 (Last week: 3-3-1)