Scott Shapiro's Week 15 NFL Six Pack

After a couple of subpar Sundays and a loss Thursday night, I rebounded with a winning weekend in Week 14. If only the Colts had found a way to close out the Buccaneers in a wild one in Florida. It's crazy how Indianapolis went from a team that found ways to win games for the better part of a year and a half, to one that has suddenly found ways to lose in spectacular fashion.

With just two weekends left in my regular-season analysis for BetAmerica (I take Week 17 off), I am ready to keep the good times rolling and hopefully close out another season in the black. All games previewed are Sunday.

New England Patriots (-10) at Cincinnati Bengals, 1 p.m. ET, CBS

The Patriots' offensive woes over the last several weeks have been well documented. They have failed to get the running game going, their receivers are not creating separation and their offensive line has struggled mightily. The defending champions are averaging just 17.6 points per game over the last five weeks, and there does not appear to be immediate answers for offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels.

The matchup Sunday looks like a get-right spot for New England, but do not be fooled by the Bengals' 1-12 record. They have been playing solid defense of late. After a terrible start to the season, Cincinnati has held three of its last four opponents to 17 points or fewer. The only foe that scored in the 20s was the Browns in Week 14, but six of their 27 points came on an interception return for a touchdown by defensive back Denzel Ward.

On the other hand, the Bengals offense has been poor all year long. Not only is Cincinnati one of two teams to post fewer than 200 points through 13 games, but the Bengals are the only team in the NFL that has not scored more than two touchdowns in a game this year. The last team to make it through its 16-game schedule without scoring two touchdowns in a game was the 2010 Carolina Panthers. They went 2-14.

Much of Cincinnati’s lack of scoring can be attributed to its poor red-zone offense. They are second to last in the NFL in converting red-zone opportunities into touchdowns (36.84%). This is not something I expect to improve in Week 15, against a Patriots defense that has not played quite as well against better competition but should make life miserable for Andy Dalton and his crew.

Points will be at a premium in a game the Patriots should win.

Pick: Under 40.5

Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers (-5), 1 p.m. ET, FOX

The Bears head north to Lambeau Field a desperate team at 7-6, but at least they are playing their best football of the season. They have won three straight, and four of their last five, behind strong defensive efforts. The stop unit has not been as dynamic as a year ago but has held the opposition to fewer than 24 points in each of its last seven contests.

The duo of quarterback Mitchell Trubisky and head coach Matt Nagy had an extremely rocky start to 2019, but both have performed better in recent weeks. The Chicago offense looked as good as it has all year in the Bears' 31-24 win Thursday night against the Cowboys. I do not anticipate them posting that many points in Wisconsin on Sunday, but they should have enough success to give Green Bay a serious challenge.

The Packers deserve credit for finding ways to win games in 2019, but I don't consider them a serious contender in the NFC. They lack playmakers on the outside, other than Davante Adams, and their defense has a number of holes.

The Packers defeated their NFC North rival, 10-3, in the season opener in the Windy City and may sweep the series, but I expect the Bears to give them all they can handle and maybe spring the upset.

Pick: Chicago +5

Jacksonville Jaguars at Oakland Raiders (-6.5), 4:05 p.m. ET, CBS

Normally I would be unwilling to lay almost a touchdown with a team playing as poorly as the Raiders. Oakland has been blown out in three straight games and is nearly eliminated from playoff contention, but unlike Jacksonville, the Raiders do not have the look of a team that has quit on their head coach.

The Jaguars were in the thick of the AFC South race during the first half of the 2019 campaign, but have lost five straight games by 17 points or more. A team once built around its defense has been gashed repeatedly since it came off a bye week in November. It is not often that I call professional football teams out for not playing with effort, but it is hard to watch the Jaguars and come away thinking they are giving it their all for head coach Doug Marrone.

The Raiders may be out of the postseason hunt, but they'll bring it in their last game at Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum. They'll roll the Jags to end an era in the Bay Area.

Pick: Oakland -6.5

Los Angeles Rams (-1) at Dallas Cowboys, 4:25 p.m. ET, FOX

The Rams have gone through their share of struggles this season and still do not appear to be the team they were a year ago, but they have turned things around over the last two games. Their defense has been great, and on offense they have blocked better. Los Angeles has also received more production from running back Todd Gurley, which has led to better performances from quarterback Jared Goff. The Rams head to Texas on a two-game win streak to take on a Cowboys team that has lost three in a row.

Jason Garrett’s poor coaching has been the hottest topic in Dallas, but his players have done little to help the cause. Dallas leads the NFL in missed tackles, and despite being first in the league in passing and 10th in rushing, the Cowboys have failed to put up enough points to help their underachieving defense.

Look for Sean McVay and Wade Phillips to out-scheme Garrett and his staff. The Rams will win their third straight and put the pressure on Minnesota for the final wild-card spot in the NFC.

Pick: Los Angeles -1

Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans (-3), 1 p.m. ET, CBS

The first of two meetings that will decide the AFC South has the look of a shootout—on paper. However, I think this number is too high.

Tennessee quarterback Ryan Tannehill has played at an elite level, but that is in large part a result of playing subpar defenses, along with opposing teams stacking the box to stop running back Derrick Henry.

The Texans are not the same offense without a healthy Will Fuller, who is likely to miss another game with a hamstring injury. They have done a good job of stopping Henry over the last couple seasons.

I'm expecting a 24-21 type of game.

Pick: Under 50

Philadelphia Eagles (-4.5) at Washington Redskins, 1 p.m. ET, FOX

The Redskins have scored the fewest points in the NFL and have a rookie quarterback who has struggled through his first campaign. He'll meet a team that has seen its defense improve over the last several weeks, but the Eagles are without most of their wide receivers and have had a disappointing season from franchise quarterback Carson Wentz.

Both teams are likely to lean on the running game and short-passing game, so the clock should move quickly and the scoreboard should not move much at all.

Pick: Under 40

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Scott Shapiro’s 2019 NFL record ATS on BetAmerica heading into Week 15: 52-48-2 (Last week: 3-3-1)