Scott Shapiro's Week 7 NFL Six Pack

With the Dolphins, Redskins and Jets playing teams likely to make the playoffs, there are a few large spreads in Week 7, but for the most part there are a slew of evenly matched games to sink our teeth into. I will focus on these matchups in this week’s Six Pack (all games Sunday).

Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts, 1 p.m. ET, CBS

The Texans enter this AFC South clash on a two-game win streak, which includes a 31-24 road victory against the Chiefs last week. They deserve credit for protecting quarterback Deshaun Watson, as well as running the ball effectively in both of their recent contests. However, those efforts came against two of the NFL’s worst defenses in the Falcons and Chiefs. Houston will face a much tougher task Sunday. The Texans will face a Colts team that has owned them the last couple of years, and they're coming off a bye week.

The majority opinion—back when Andrew Luck announced his retirement—was that the Colts season was over before it started, but that has not been the case. Indianapolis is 3-2, possesses one of the league’s best offensive lines and had a suitable replacement at quarterback in Jacoby Brissett. Brissett is not Andrew Luck, but he is not as careless with the football and has run the offense well through Indianapolis' first five games.

With Texan killer T.Y. Hilton ready to roll, and Darius Leonard back after he missed two games with a concussion, the Colts are in a terrific spot to earn a huge win in Lucas Oil Stadium.

Indy will win its sixth straight against the Texans.

Pick: Indianapolis -1

Baltimore Ravens at Seattle Seahawks (-3), 4:25 p.m. ET, FOX

Quarterback Lamar Jackson is one of the most athletic players in the NFL and can drive defenses crazy with his ability to run, but his passing has been up and down through the Ravens first six games. His squad heads across the country at the top of the AFC North, but its four wins have come against the Dolphins, Cardinals, Bengals and the Steelers—which came with controversy in overtime. The Ravens will look to beat their first playoff contender this week in a hostile environment.

Seattle got outplayed last week against Cleveland, but made fewer mistakes than the Browns and found a way to win to run their record to 5-1. The Seahawks have been far from perfect, but the league’s Most Valuable Player thus far, Russell Wilson, has been a magician leading the Seahawks to four wins by four points or fewer. Wilson has thrown for 14 touchdowns and has yet to be intercepted.

Wilson’s weaponry is stronger than it has been in recent years. The Seahawks should take advantage of a Baltimore defense that has struggled after it lost a number of key contributors in the offseason.

On the other side of the ball, Seattle’s secondary is far from what it was during the Legion of Boom years, but its front seven is loaded, led by linebacker Bobby Wagner and defensive end Jadeveon Clowney. The Seahawks should have more success stopping the Ravens rushing attack than most have.

The Ravens offense will likely score its share of points, but I expect Wilson to be far too much for the Baltimore defense to handle. Seattle wins and covers in what should be a shootout in the Pacific Northwest.

Pick: Seattle -3

Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys (-3), 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC

Before the season the Eagles and Cowboys were thought by many, including myself, to be two of the powerhouses in the NFL. That has not been the case.

Dallas got off to a 3-0 start, but those victories came against three bottom dwellers. Since then, the Cowboys have lost three straight, including a disappointing loss in Week 6 to the Jets.

The Eagles suffered a number of key injuries early in the season, but the main issue has been their secondary. They have been shredded regularly through the air, including in Week 6, when Kirk Cousins completed 22 of his 29 passes for 333 yards and four touchdowns.

The good news for the Eagles is that Dallas has key injuries that will hurt its ability to take advantage of the poor Philly secondary. If offensive tackles Tyron Smith and La’el Collins are once again unable to go, the Eagles front four should be able to put consistent pressure on Dak Prescott. Dallas' No. 1 receiver, Amari Cooper, also appears likely to miss this key NFC East tussle with a thigh injury. Philly also should benefit on offense, with Cowboys cornerbacks Byron Jones and Anthony Brown likely to miss this key divisional battle with hamstring injuries.

At full strength Dallas would have presented serious issues for the Eagles, but that is not likely to be the case Sunday. Look for Philadelphia to seize the opportunity and come away with a huge road win.

Pick: Philadelphia +3

Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati Bengals, 1 p.m. ET, CBS

The Bengals have found ways to cover games in 2019, with wins against the number as significant underdogs in Seattle, Buffalo and Baltimore, but they have yet to outscore an opponent. They also are 0-2 ATS at home.

With the league’s worst offensive line and a ton of injuries in their secondary, they matchup terribly against a Jaguars team that has a strong front seven, can run the ball with Leonard Fournette and can make big plays down the field.

Gardner Minshew has come back down to earth the last couple weeks, but he should find success in Cincinnati on Sunday afternoon. The Jags will stay in the AFC South hunt with a relatively easy win in the Queen City.

Pick: Jacksonville -3.5

Arizona Cardinals at New York Giants (-3), 1 p.m. ET, FOX

The Giants failed to cover last Thursday night in Foxborough, but they showed me a lot to hang in against a much better Patriots roster. In that contest New York was without its top three offensive weapons, but the Giants should get Evan Engram back and could get Saquon Barkley back, too.

Both teams should score plenty in the Big Apple, but I like the Giants' chances to have a huge day on offense, after some extended time to prepare for a poor Cardinals defense.

Pick: New York Giants -3

New Orleans Saints at Chicago Bears (-3.5), 4:25 p.m. ET, FOX

Sean Payton has done an unbelievable job to get the Saints to 5-1, despite the loss of Drew Brees to injury in their 27-9 loss to the Rams in Week 2. They have done it mostly with defense, but backup Teddy Bridgewater has been solid under center. I still struggle to see how they move the ball in Chicago, especially with Alvin Kamara questionable to play with an ankle injury.

The Bears come into Week 7 off a bye week and should be focused after a poor performance in London.

Whether it is Chase Daniel or Mitchell Trubisky, look for Chicago to bounce back and score enough points to win and cover this one.

Pick: Chicago -3.5

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Scott Shapiro’s 2019 NFL record ATS on BetAmerica heading into Week 7: 26-18 (4-3 last week)

You can hear more of Scott’s NFL thoughts on the “Who Do Ya Like Podcast,” which goes up every Thursday afternoon. You can find it on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you listen to podcasts.