Scully’s NFL Week 16 picks: Playoff implications aplenty

Only two weeks remain in the regular season, and I will preview several games with playoff implications in Week 16.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Atlanta Falcons (-7.5), Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS)

Atlanta has won its last three road games, including upsets of New Orleans and San Francisco, but the Falcons have not been the same team at home. With a disappointing 5-9 record, Atlanta likes to give the ball away, commits far too many penalties at Mercedes-Benz Stadium and the franchise appears headed toward a major overhaul during the offseason.

The Falcons are 1-3 ATS as a favorite this year and should not be giving this many points to any opponent, especially in this scenario. Jacksonville is eligible to display renewed confidence following a comeback win at Oakland.

Similar to Atlanta, Jacksonville has disappointed the home fans and performed better on the road, with three of its last four wins in away games. Gardner Minshew put his stamp on the quarterback position last week, with a pair of touchdown drives late in the fourth quarter to overcome a 10-point deficit, and his performance could have a galvanizing effect on the entire team. The defense really underperformed during a recent five-game losing streak, but the Jaguars held Oakland scoreless in the second half and can carry that form forward against mistake-prone Atlanta.

Pick: Jacksonville +7.5

Baltimore Ravens (-10) at Cleveland Browns, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS)

Opportunities to make money on Baltimore are dwindling, with only four potential games remaining before the Super Bowl, and the Ravens may rest their starters next week. Fortunately they still need this game to lock up home-field advantage in the playoffs, and that’s big trouble for dysfunctional Cleveland.

Baltimore—which has covered seven of its last eight games, including a 17-point spread against the Jets last week—has not lost since a 15-point setback to Cleveland in late September. The Browns put 530 yards of total offense on the Ravens, and Nick Chubb ran wild throughout. That will serve as extra motivation for a Baltimore defense that has clamped down since. Since Cleveland scored 40 on them, the Ravens have held opponents to only 15.7 points per game.

Cleveland enters in bad form, with 226 rushing yards allowed to Arizona last week, and the boo birds will be out in full force as they get shredded Sunday.

Pick: Baltimore -10

Oakland Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers (-6.5), Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET (CBS)

I must be missing something with this point spread. More than half the crowd should be rooting for Oakland—the transplanted Chargers essentially play their home games on a neutral field and the Raiders have more local fans—and Los Angeles sunk to new depths at home last week. Losers in four of their last five games, the Chargers weren't competitive during the second half of a 39-10 loss to Minnesota and committed seven turnovers.

The Raiders went off form after a win over the Chargers in early November. Outscored by 21 point or more in three straight losses, the Raiders delivered an improved performance last week (they held Jacksonville to 262 total yards), and a bad call might have cost them a win.

Opponents had been keeping their ground game mostly in check, but the Raiders were able to dominate time of possession last week (34:12 to 25:48).

Los Angeles, which is 1-7-1 ATS in its last nine home games, will wrap up an underachieving season on the road next week. With their move to a shiny new stadium next year, the Chargers will disappoint backers one final time in Carson, California.

Pick: Oakland +6.5

Dallas Cowboys (-1.5) at Philadelphia Eagles, Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (FOX)

Both of these teams have been disappointing.

For Philadelphia health has been a significant factor, as the offense has often stalled because Carson Wentz’s top wide receivers are injured. The Cowboys have lacked competent coaching and appeared to be going off the rails during a recent three-week losing streak.

Each team won last week, but the similarities end there. The Eagles prevailed by a deceiving margin, with 14 points in the final 26 seconds to overcome a late deficit against lowly Washington. Dwayne Haskins threw for 261 yards against them. A week earlier Philadelphia erased a 14-point halftime hole to nip the hapless Giants in overtime.

Dallas turned things around in remarkable fashion and crushed the playoff hopes of the Rams with a thoroughly dominant performance last week. The Cowboys rushed for a season-high 263 yards, Dak Prescott diced up a well-respected pass defense and they held the Rams to 22 rushing yards. Dallas posted a 36:06-23:54 time-of-possession advantage and is seemingly coming together at the right time.

Dallas has won and covered its last four meetings against Philadelphia and will make it five straight on Sunday.

Pick: Dallas -1.5

Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings (-5.5), Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET (ESPN)

This is a revenge setting for Minnesota, which outplayed Green Bay but made too many blunders in a narrow loss early in the season, and the Packers look vulnerable in this spot.

Green Bay has played a soft schedule, with nine of its 11 wins coming against teams with a losing record presently, and can’t string together four quarters. Last week was a prime example. Chicago stunk up Lambeau Field for the opening three quarters, but the Bears scored a couple of times in the fourth and twice had the ball in Packers’ territory with the opportunity to tie the game late. Chicago outgained the Packers 415-292.

Green Bay quarterback Aaron Rogers is averaging only 174.5 passing yards per game over his last six contests, and the offense consistently finds itself in third-and-long situations. The Packers have been fortunate to face so many bad quarterbacks this season, and their below-average defense ranks 22nd against the run and 24th against the pass.

Minnesota may be without running back Dalvin Cook, but the Vikings are performing at a high level. I like the moxie Kirk Cousins has displayed since midseason, and Minnesota will look to bury Green Bay as it continues to build momentum for the postseason.