Scully’s NFL picks: Packers still have plenty to play for in Week 17

I look forward to Week 17. Significant stakes exist for teams like Green Bay, which still has the opportunity for a first-round playoff bye. Other teams will be resting their starters, essentially treating the game like the preseason because their playoff positioning is already set. I always feel the percentages are in my favor when motivations shift in late-season games.

Green Bay Packers (-12.5) at Detroit Lions, 1 p.m. ET (FOX)

Green Bay knows Seattle has a viable chance to beat San Francisco at home Sunday night. But first, they must first take care of business to possibly earn a first-round bye in the NFC Playoffs. I expect them to take no prisoners against Detroit.

Aaron Jones exits a career-best outing, rushing for 154 yards against a stout Minnesota defense, and Devonte Adams was unstoppable catching 13 passes for 116 yards last week in the Monday night game. The Packers defense is rounding into top form at the right time, holding playoff-bound Minnesota to only 139 total yards, and they now face an injury-plagued Detroit offense that has averaged only 15.4 points over the last five games.

Green Bay has been fantastic coming back on six days rest, posting a 5-0 ATS mark following a Monday night game. Detroit is ready for the season to be over, producing a 1-9 ATS record in their last 10 games.

NFL free pick: Green Bay -12.5

Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings (-1), 1 p.m. ET (FOX)

Locked into the No. 6 seed, Minnesota can’t afford any more injuries before heading to either Green Bay or Seattle for the playoffs next week. And with no incentive to win, they will bring a vanilla gameplan to the equation. That will enable Chicago to grind out a low-scoring win.

The Bears have been a mess offensively this season. However, defense remains a strong suit, and they always play divisional rivals tough. The Bears have particularly had Minnesota’s number of late, holding the Vikings to only six points earlier this season and posting a 5-0 ATS record in the last five meetings.

Minnesota exits a dismal offensive showing against Green Bay, recording only six first-downs, and their backups won’t get much going against Chicago.

NFL free pick: Chicago +1

Tennessee Titans (-3.5) at Houston Texans, 4:25 p.m. ET (CBS)

Tennessee controls their playoff destiny, earning a wild-card berth with a victory. Houston will have nothing to play for if Kansas City beats the Los Angeles Chargers at 1:00 p.m.

If Kansas City wins as expected, Houston will have every reason to rest Deshaun Watson, who exited last week’s game with a back injury. Top receivers Will Fuller (groin) and DeAndre Hopkins (ilness) have also been limited in practice and would benefit from a week off. Tennessee should be in a favorable position against an opponent at less than full strength.

After giving New Orleans all they could handle without Derrick Henry, Tennessee expects to have the star running back for this important test. Ryan Tannehill can pad his stats against backup defenders, and Tennessee is averaging more than 33 points over the last six games.

NFL free pick: Tennessee -3.5

New York Jets at Buffalo Bills (-1.5), 1 p.m. ET (CBS)

This game means nothing to Buffalo. The only thing they have to lose is players to injury. New York enters this game with momentum, handing playoff-contender Pittsburgh a costly setback last week. They can finish the second half of the season 6-2 after opening with a 1-7 record.

The Bills had trouble finding the end zone earlier this season against the Jets, scoring only three points in the first three quarters, and it’s easy to envision a similar scenario here. Josh Allen (who is tied for the league lead with five game-winning drives) may play sparingly, and the Bills ranked only 23rd in scoring (20.5 points per game) despite winning 10 games.

The Jets do not score many points themselves, but they should get some opportunities when defensive stalwarts like Tremaine Edmunds, Micah Hyde, Matt Milano, Jordan Phillips and Tre’Davious White are resting on the sidelines for Buffalo. New York held Pittsburgh to 75 rushing yards last week, and they can close the year with another outstanding defensive performance.

NFL free pick: New York +1.5

Pittsburgh Steelers (-2) at Baltimore Ravens, 4:25 p.m. ET (CBS)

Baltimore will rest their starters with home-field advantage guaranteed in the AFC playoffs. Pittsburgh still has a chance to make the postseason with a win. I like Pittsburgh by at least a field goal.

The Ravens enter with a 12-game win streak, but it’s unrealistic to expect Robert Griffin and back-up offensive linemen to have same level of success. Especially against Pittsburgh’s top 10-ranked run defense. Third in defensive efficiency (DVOA), the Steelers are capable of keeping Baltimore behind the chains and that could easily lead to turnovers.

Pittsburgh has forced 36 turnovers, tying with New England for the league lead, and defense will carry them on Sunday.

Free Pick: Pittsburgh -2

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