Scully’s Week 11 NFL picks: New Orleans will bounce back

New Orleans will attempt to rebound after a surprising loss, Baltimore will seek to keep things rolling and an intriguing Monday night matchup is set between AFC West rivals in Mexico City. Those are among the highlights in Week 11.

New Orleans Saints (-5.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, FOX

New Orleans totaled 12 penalties, was out of sync from the start and scored only nine points against Atlanta last week. Alvin Kamara should be sharper in his second game back from an ankle injury, and Drew Brees is more than capable of bouncing back against Tampa Bay, which ranks last in the league in passing yards allowed per game (298.9).

Tampa Bay benefited from an overturned pass interference call to win an ugly game against Arizona last week, and overcame two more interceptions from Jameis Winston, who leads the league with 14. The Buccaneers make too many mistakes on both sides of the ball and released starting cornerback Vernon Hargreaves this week.

New Orleans has an elite defense that will be motivated after a poor showing. The Saints have the only defense ranked in the top 10 against both the pass and run, and they are seventh overall, according to Football Outsiders. Since Week 6 teams that have scored nine or fewer points are 7-2 ATS the following week, and New Orleans will rebound stylishly.

Pick: New Orleans -5.5

New York Jets at Washington Redskins (-2.5), Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, FOX

Washington is fresh off a bye week and has played improved defense in recent weeks, with only 17 points allowed per game over its last four contests. That bodes well against the low-scoring Jets, who were averaging only 12 points per game prior to last week’s narrow win over the reeling Giants.

The victory proved costly, as the Jets lost tight end Chris Herndon and guard Brian Winters, and New York’s offense is still a mess. Le’Veon Bell, who has been battling a knee injury, was frustrated after he gained only 34 yards on 18 carries against the putrid Giants run defense, and Sam Darnold (nine interceptions in the last five games) has played poorly in both road games this year.

Washington rookie quarterback Dwayne Haskins can finally get things going against a bad secondary (New York ranks 26th against the pass) and Adrian Peterson enters in top form. He rushed for 108 yards on 18 carries last time out. Washington can grind out the home win.

Pick: Washington -2.5

Buffalo Bills (-6.5) at Miami Dolphins, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS

Miami has covered five straight and hiring Brian Flores as head coach was the organization’s best move in decades. Give me the points at home against a low-scoring Buffalo squad.

A protégé of Bill Belichick, Flores has changed the mindset for a team that had a legitimate chance to go winless. The Dolphins play with confidence, and it is easy to appreciate their effort, despite a patchwork roster. After they opened the season with a tough slate against four playoff teams, the Dolphins have given every opponent trouble, including Buffalo, which trailed at home in the fourth quarter and rallied to win over its divisional rival.

Buffalo is in the second of back-to-back road games and exits a tough loss at Cleveland. The Bills lack consistency on offense and scored only 16 points last week. Miami has been opportunistic (three takeaways last week) and Buffalo quarterback Josh Allen is susceptible to turnovers, with 11 fumbles and seven interceptions this season. Miami enters with a 5-2 ATS mark in its last seven games against divisional foes.

Pick: Miami +6.5

Houston Texans at Baltimore Ravens (-4.5), Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS

Teams are 0-6 ATS after trips to play in London this year and Houston has returned stateside to take its lumps against a Baltimore offense that is playing downhill. Lamar Jackson and an improved defense have been the catalysts to double-digit wins over New England and Seattle in recent weeks, and the Ravens are poised to make a serious push for home-field advantage in the playoffs.

Baltimore leads the NFL in scoring (33.3 points per game) and time of possession (33:59 minutes per game). The Ravens rank second in third-down conversion rate (48.6%) and first in fourth-down conversion rate (76.9%). Teams can’t stop them and Baltimore’s defense, which has scored touchdowns in its last three games, is expected to get defensive tackle Michael Pierce back.

The Texans didn’t miss J.J. Watt against Jacksonville, but their defense has trouble getting off the field, allowing opponents to complete 44.8% of third-down conversions (26th). The Texans can’t defend the pass effectively (29th-ranked pass defense) and won’t be able to slow down Jackson.

Pick: Baltimore -4.5

Kansas City Chiefs (-4) at Los Angeles Chargers, Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET, ESPN

The Chargers have their backs against the wall, with a 4-6 record after a loss in a winnable game at Oakland. I expect Philip Rivers to turn things around after a three-interception performance, and the Chargers are capable of dominating both lines of scrimmage against Kansas City, which was terrible defensively and on special teams last week.

The Chargers defensive line is arguably the best in the AFC, with Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram performing at a high level. The offensive line has gotten healthier, has improved significantly in recent weeks and should open running lanes against a Chiefs defense that surrendered 225 rushing yards last week. The Chiefs had a 37:51-22:09 time-of-possession advantage against Tennessee last week and still found a way to lose.

Los Angeles has had extra time to prepare for this high-altitude game in Mexico City, and Kansas City could be playing on empty following a grueling road loss. I like the Chargers to win outright.

Pick: Los Angeles +4

---

James Scully's 2019 NFL record ATS on BetAmerica heading into Week 11: 28-22 (4-1 last week)