Scully’s Week 14 NFL picks: Keep riding the Ravens

My selections for Week 14 of the NFL season involve a pair of major games with significant conference implications. All games previewed are Sunday.

Baltimore Ravens (-6) at Buffalo Bills, 1 p.m. ET, CBS

I like the toughness Baltimore displayed to gut out a close win over San Francisco last week, when quarterback Lamar Jackson rushed for 101 yards in adverse conditions, and Buffalo’s third-ranked defense has been vulnerable against the run at times this season. Philadelphia went on the road and put up 218 rushing yards against the Bills six weeks ago, and Cleveland’s ability to run effectively was the difference a couple of weeks later.

After they narrowly edged Pittsburgh and Cincinnati in early October, the Ravens improved significantly. They averaged 40.4 points per game over their next five contests, including dominant wins over Seattle, New England and Houston. The offense can continue to evolve—the league has never seen anything like it—and Baltimore will get back to its high-scoring ways.

Pick: Baltimore -6

Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns (-7.5), 1 p.m. ET, CBS

This pick is not an overreaction to Cincinnati getting its first win. The Bengals have owned this series from a betting perspective, with five straight covers in Cleveland and an 8-1 ATS record in their last nine meetings, and they enter on an 8-0 ATS run as 5+ point underdogs in away games (excluding London games). Cincinnati played its best football against a dysfunctional foe last week (the Jets), and Cleveland has a similar makeup.

It's no surprise to see Cleveland leading the league in penalty yardage (77.2 yards per game). Poorly coached and undisciplined, the Browns miss top pass rusher Myles Garrett, who is suspended indefinitely. Cincinnati quarterback Andy Dalton should be able to make plays, and running back Joe Mixon is capable of a big afternoon against Cleveland’s 26th-ranked run defense (124 yards allowed per game).

With one of the worst offensive lines in the league, Cleveland was held to fewer than 20 points for the seventh time last week. The demoralizing setback killed the Browns' playoff hopes and dropped them to 5-7. It’s difficult to envision them being up for this game. They may be able to grind out a close win, but Cleveland should not be favored by this many points.

Pick: Cincinnati +7.5

San Francisco 49ers at New Orleans Saints (-2.5), 1 p.m. ET, FOX

San Francisco enters in prime form and looks like a Super Bowl team after last week's defensive performance against Baltimore. The 49ers can run the ball effectively (second-ranked run offense) and light up the scoreboard (second-ranked scoring offense), and their superb defense can give New Orleans trouble.

After they performed at such a high level earlier this season, the Saints aren't entering this game firing on all cylinders. Two weeks ago Carolina easily moved the ball and dropped 31 points on their defense. New Orleans benefited from playing a turnover-prone rival last week and took advantage of a pair of interceptions, a fumble and a blocked punt against Atlanta, which still had nearly twice as many first downs and easily outgained the Saints, even without Julio Jones. New Orleans gained only 279 yards last week.

San Francisco ranks first in total defense (250.9 total yards allowed per game). The 49ers haven’t allowed a 100-yard rusher in 41 straight games and apply heavy pressure upon opposing quarterbacks. The Niners are 4-0 ATS in their last four games as road underdogs. It’s a difficult road spot, but San Francisco must win this game to keep pace with Seattle. The Saints are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games as home favorites.

Pick: San Francisco +2.5

Kansas City Chiefs at New England Patriots (-3), 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS

Kansas City has gone through some ups and downs this season because of injuries, but the Chiefs enter this game on an upswing. The Chiefs could still earn a first-round playoff bye if they win out, and I expect the best from Patrick Mahomes and his high-scoring offense.

New England is still seeking an identity on offense. With no playmakers on the outside and little production at tight end, the Patriots get bogged down at times. That was the case last week, when they fell behind 28-9 in the fourth quarter to the Texans, and quarterbacks like Lamar Jackson and Deshaun Watson have given their elite defense trouble. If Mahomes gets going, New England won’t be able to match points.

Kansas City’s defense has improved in recent weeks. The stop unit led the way last week, with three forced turnovers and an interception returned for a touchdown, as the Chiefs jumped ahead 31-0 midway through the third quarter against the Raiders. I like Kansas City to win outright.

Pick: Kansas City +3

Tennessee Titans (-3) at Oakland Raiders, 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS

Tennessee has taken off since Ryan Tannehill took over at quarterback, with a 5-1 ATS record it its last six games. Tannehill has completed 75% of his passes, with six touchdowns and no interceptions, over his last three games, and the Titans are running the ball better than any team other than of Baltimore recently. I loved how they rallied from a 10-point deficit at Indianapolis last week to win by a pair of touchdowns.

Oakland failed to score in double digits against the Jets and Chiefs the last two weeks. The Raiders watched their playoff hopes nosedive in embarrassing fashion (they have been outscored by a 74-12 margin) and can’t afford to be deflated against the league’s seventh-best scoring defense.

With Tannehill as the starter, Tennessee is averaging 29.7 points per game, and running back Derrick Henry has averaged 165.3 rushing yards per game since early November. The Titans will prove too good on both sides of the ball against a declining Oakland squad.

Pick: Tennessee -3

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James Scully's 2019 NFL record ATS on BetAmerica heading into Week 14: 37-30 (4-3 last week)