Scully’s Week 7 NFL Free Picks
October 17th, 2018
James Scully is back yet again, ready to bounce back from a rough Week 6 that had a lot of heads spinning over the weekend. At 15-12-3 ATS on the season, Scully walks you through the best of his Week 7 NFL Free Picks!
*ATS (Against the Spread) / SU (Straight Up) * PK indicates pick *home team in caps
Houston Texans +5.0 vs JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (Sunday 1:00 ET)
Jacksonville (-5) returns home after tough two-ranked stretch in which they got pounded by Kansas City and Dallas and they’ve lost three of the last four SU. But Jaguars play well at home versus this opponent (4-0 ATS last four home meetings) and can capitalize against an offense that struggles to score in the red zone. Jags still a good home team, posting a 5-2 ATS mark, and offense still has weapons (averaging 371 yards per game). Houston fortunate to defeat a banged-up Indianapolis in OT before facing Dallas and Buffalo at home and not buying their current three-game win streak. Watson has nine TDs and seven interceptions this year and Texans rank toward the bottom in points per game (21st); they’re an anemic 31st when it comes to scoring TDs in the red zone. Defense bailed out struggling offense last week with a late Pick 6 but Houston outgained 229-226 by Buffalo, ugh! Texans 1-10 ATS in last 11 games and 1-6 ATS in last six versus divisional rivals. This game has all the makings of a lopsided home win for Jacksonville!
Week 7 NFL Free Picks – Bet Jacksonville -5 over Houston!
New England -3.0- vs CHICAGO BEARS (Sunday 1:00 ET)
Bye weeks can be tricky and teams 0-4 ATS after a bye so far this year. Chicago (+3) no exception as they showed up flat in the first half at Miami last week. Defense a shell of themselves throughout, allowing the Dolphins to gain 541 yards and a pair of 40+ yard TD plays with a back-up QB, but offense played well after being blanked at halftime, scoring 28 points as Trubinsky wound up 22-for-31 with 316 yards passing. With a fine group of WRs, Trubinsky quietly making nice strides in last two games under Matt Nagy’s coaching, throwing for 670 yards, nine TDs, one interception and a 72% completion rate, and now faces a terrible New England secondary. RB Howard eligible to have a fine game as well and Bears defense remains talented and proud. After being embarrassed last week, the defensive unit inspired to deliver a much-improved effort. New England 0-2 SU on the road this year, struggling against a strong defensive front while being man-handled at Jacksonville and scoring only 10 points at Detroit. Pats benefited from favorable scheduling in recent weeks, winning three straight at home, but recent opponents unable to pressure on Brady. That won’t be the case Sunday. Pats also in possible letdown mode after huge emotional win over unbeaten KC, squandering multiple double-digit leads before Brady led game-winning drive in final minutes last week. Chicago 4-0 ATS in last four games following SU loss and 7-2-1 ATS in last 10 home games. We’ll take the points at home with Chicago!
Week 7 NFL Free Picks – Bet Chicago +3.0 over New England!
New Orleans +2.5 vs BALTIMORE RAVENS (Sunday 4:05 ET)
Baltimore (-2.5) returns home following three straight away, including impressive wins over Pittsburgh and Tennessee, and enter a key stretch with three of the next four games at home. They’ve got the league’s best defense, allowing only 12.8 points and 270.8 yards per game, and the Ravens offense much-improved from last year averaging 25.5 points and 393 yards per game. Baltimore held Tennessee (playoffs last year) to 106 total yards and recorded 12 sacks in last week’s shut-out victory and Ravens 3-0 ATS in last three meetings against New Orleans, who must avoid being sluggish off the bye and play better defense. Teams 0-4 ATS following bye weeks so far this year and Saints defense has been disappointing this year, allowing 28 points per game (26th overall) while playing a suspect schedule against five unlikely playoff teams. They step up in class significantly against Flacco, who is enjoying a career-best season, and Ravens bring their best against good teams, recording a 6-1-1 ATS mark in the last eight versus teams with a winning record. Look for Baltimore to dominate time of possession as they slow down the Saints’ attack and wear down a beleaguered defensive unit that can’t stop anybody from scoring; we’ll lay the points in a comfortable Baltimore home win!
Week 7 NFL Free Picks – Bet Baltimore -2.5 over New Orleans!
Dallas Cowboys +2.0 vs WASHINGTON COWBOYS (Sunday 4:25 ET)
Washington (-1.5) impressive versus playoff-caliber teams in their last two home tilts, allowing Green Bay and Carolina to score only 17 points apiece. Alex Smith efficient with four TDs and only one interception in those match-ups and RB Peterson thriving, gaining 97 yards versus stout Panthers run defense last week. Redskins second overall in total defense and fired up to face Dallas, who rolled to 38-14 rout when visiting the nation’s capital last season. Cowboys defense playing great but they’ve been the ultimate Jekyll & Hyde offense, performing terrible outside of Dallas. The Boys have scored only 31 total points in a trio of road appearances and while the public may have bought into a 40-7 home rout of Jacksonville last week, with oddsmakers establishing a low number, Cowboys too one-dimensional at times with run game. Washington excellent vs run (6th-ranked rushing defense) and at home (5-1 ATS last six), and they’ll make Prescott and his poor WRs beat them. That’s not going to happen and Washington will begin to pull away from their low-scoring opponent in the second half, lay the points!
Week 7 NFL Free Picks – Bet Washington -2.0 over Dallas!
Cincinnati +6 vs KANSAS CITY (Sunday 8:20 ET)
Rainy conditions slowed down Cincinnati (+6) last week, with RB Mixon receiving only 11 touches (64 yards or 6.4 yards per carry) in his second game back, but Bengals in position to win after scoring with 1:16 left but gave up game-winning drive. Mixon will be more involved this week and loved how Cincy responded from previous setback, scoring 37 points to win as 3.5-point road underdog. Bengals possess one of the league’s top offenses (9th-ranked) and red-zone attacks (2nd) and while the defensive stats aren’t formidable, it’s still the best unit Cincinnati has fielded in years and proved opportunistic forcing key turnovers in victories over Baltimore and Miami. First-place Bengals still motivated and Kansas City in a letdown spot after scoring 40 points in narrow loss to New England. Chiefs always one of the best turnover differential teams under Andy Reid, ranking either first or second the last three years, but KC -3 of late as Mahomes has tossed four interceptions in the last two games. That’s a concern and banged-up Chiefs defense playing at a historically low level for a conference leader, allowing Blake Bortles to throw for more than 400 yards two weeks ago and surrendering nearly 3,000 yards over six games (304 yards more than the 31st worst team). KC 6-0 ATS but their defensive ineptness will catch up to them in this spot. Bengals road warriors who relish AFC West competition, posting 8-0 ATS mark, and Kansas City 1-4 ATS in last five home games versus AFC North. Game could go either way in the end but Bengals can make it a tight affair. We’ll take the points with Cincinnati!
Week 7 NFL Free Picks – Bet Cincinnati +5.5 over Kansas City!
*ATS (Against the Spread) / SU (Straight Up) * PK indicates pick *home team in caps
Houston Texans +5.0 vs JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (Sunday 1:00 ET)
Jacksonville (-5) returns home after tough two-ranked stretch in which they got pounded by Kansas City and Dallas and they’ve lost three of the last four SU. But Jaguars play well at home versus this opponent (4-0 ATS last four home meetings) and can capitalize against an offense that struggles to score in the red zone. Jags still a good home team, posting a 5-2 ATS mark, and offense still has weapons (averaging 371 yards per game). Houston fortunate to defeat a banged-up Indianapolis in OT before facing Dallas and Buffalo at home and not buying their current three-game win streak. Watson has nine TDs and seven interceptions this year and Texans rank toward the bottom in points per game (21st); they’re an anemic 31st when it comes to scoring TDs in the red zone. Defense bailed out struggling offense last week with a late Pick 6 but Houston outgained 229-226 by Buffalo, ugh! Texans 1-10 ATS in last 11 games and 1-6 ATS in last six versus divisional rivals. This game has all the makings of a lopsided home win for Jacksonville!
Week 7 NFL Free Picks – Bet Jacksonville -5 over Houston!
New England -3.0- vs CHICAGO BEARS (Sunday 1:00 ET)
Bye weeks can be tricky and teams 0-4 ATS after a bye so far this year. Chicago (+3) no exception as they showed up flat in the first half at Miami last week. Defense a shell of themselves throughout, allowing the Dolphins to gain 541 yards and a pair of 40+ yard TD plays with a back-up QB, but offense played well after being blanked at halftime, scoring 28 points as Trubinsky wound up 22-for-31 with 316 yards passing. With a fine group of WRs, Trubinsky quietly making nice strides in last two games under Matt Nagy’s coaching, throwing for 670 yards, nine TDs, one interception and a 72% completion rate, and now faces a terrible New England secondary. RB Howard eligible to have a fine game as well and Bears defense remains talented and proud. After being embarrassed last week, the defensive unit inspired to deliver a much-improved effort. New England 0-2 SU on the road this year, struggling against a strong defensive front while being man-handled at Jacksonville and scoring only 10 points at Detroit. Pats benefited from favorable scheduling in recent weeks, winning three straight at home, but recent opponents unable to pressure on Brady. That won’t be the case Sunday. Pats also in possible letdown mode after huge emotional win over unbeaten KC, squandering multiple double-digit leads before Brady led game-winning drive in final minutes last week. Chicago 4-0 ATS in last four games following SU loss and 7-2-1 ATS in last 10 home games. We’ll take the points at home with Chicago!
Week 7 NFL Free Picks – Bet Chicago +3.0 over New England!
New Orleans +2.5 vs BALTIMORE RAVENS (Sunday 4:05 ET)
Baltimore (-2.5) returns home following three straight away, including impressive wins over Pittsburgh and Tennessee, and enter a key stretch with three of the next four games at home. They’ve got the league’s best defense, allowing only 12.8 points and 270.8 yards per game, and the Ravens offense much-improved from last year averaging 25.5 points and 393 yards per game. Baltimore held Tennessee (playoffs last year) to 106 total yards and recorded 12 sacks in last week’s shut-out victory and Ravens 3-0 ATS in last three meetings against New Orleans, who must avoid being sluggish off the bye and play better defense. Teams 0-4 ATS following bye weeks so far this year and Saints defense has been disappointing this year, allowing 28 points per game (26th overall) while playing a suspect schedule against five unlikely playoff teams. They step up in class significantly against Flacco, who is enjoying a career-best season, and Ravens bring their best against good teams, recording a 6-1-1 ATS mark in the last eight versus teams with a winning record. Look for Baltimore to dominate time of possession as they slow down the Saints’ attack and wear down a beleaguered defensive unit that can’t stop anybody from scoring; we’ll lay the points in a comfortable Baltimore home win!
Week 7 NFL Free Picks – Bet Baltimore -2.5 over New Orleans!
Dallas Cowboys +2.0 vs WASHINGTON COWBOYS (Sunday 4:25 ET)
Washington (-1.5) impressive versus playoff-caliber teams in their last two home tilts, allowing Green Bay and Carolina to score only 17 points apiece. Alex Smith efficient with four TDs and only one interception in those match-ups and RB Peterson thriving, gaining 97 yards versus stout Panthers run defense last week. Redskins second overall in total defense and fired up to face Dallas, who rolled to 38-14 rout when visiting the nation’s capital last season. Cowboys defense playing great but they’ve been the ultimate Jekyll & Hyde offense, performing terrible outside of Dallas. The Boys have scored only 31 total points in a trio of road appearances and while the public may have bought into a 40-7 home rout of Jacksonville last week, with oddsmakers establishing a low number, Cowboys too one-dimensional at times with run game. Washington excellent vs run (6th-ranked rushing defense) and at home (5-1 ATS last six), and they’ll make Prescott and his poor WRs beat them. That’s not going to happen and Washington will begin to pull away from their low-scoring opponent in the second half, lay the points!
Week 7 NFL Free Picks – Bet Washington -2.0 over Dallas!
Cincinnati +6 vs KANSAS CITY (Sunday 8:20 ET)
Rainy conditions slowed down Cincinnati (+6) last week, with RB Mixon receiving only 11 touches (64 yards or 6.4 yards per carry) in his second game back, but Bengals in position to win after scoring with 1:16 left but gave up game-winning drive. Mixon will be more involved this week and loved how Cincy responded from previous setback, scoring 37 points to win as 3.5-point road underdog. Bengals possess one of the league’s top offenses (9th-ranked) and red-zone attacks (2nd) and while the defensive stats aren’t formidable, it’s still the best unit Cincinnati has fielded in years and proved opportunistic forcing key turnovers in victories over Baltimore and Miami. First-place Bengals still motivated and Kansas City in a letdown spot after scoring 40 points in narrow loss to New England. Chiefs always one of the best turnover differential teams under Andy Reid, ranking either first or second the last three years, but KC -3 of late as Mahomes has tossed four interceptions in the last two games. That’s a concern and banged-up Chiefs defense playing at a historically low level for a conference leader, allowing Blake Bortles to throw for more than 400 yards two weeks ago and surrendering nearly 3,000 yards over six games (304 yards more than the 31st worst team). KC 6-0 ATS but their defensive ineptness will catch up to them in this spot. Bengals road warriors who relish AFC West competition, posting 8-0 ATS mark, and Kansas City 1-4 ATS in last five home games versus AFC North. Game could go either way in the end but Bengals can make it a tight affair. We’ll take the points with Cincinnati!
Week 7 NFL Free Picks – Bet Cincinnati +5.5 over Kansas City!
James Scully is a professional handicapper who hails from the great state of Ohio. You can follow him on Twitter @JamesScully.
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