Scully’s Week 9 NFL Free Picks
November 1st, 2018
James Scully is 18-19-3 ATS (48.6 %) on the season, dipping in to the red for the first time all year after a 2-3 ATS run last weekend. He returns with more resolve than ever, dedicated to turning things up this weekend and finishing this season strong in his Week 9 NFL Free Picks!
*ATS (Against the Spread) / SU (Straight Up) * PK indicates pick *home team in caps
Oakland Raiders +3.0 vs SAN FRANCISCO FORTY NINERS (Thursday 8:20 ET)
After dominating for three quarters, San Francisco (-3) let last week’s game slip away as the offense bogged down in the second half and put too much pressure on the defense, with Arizona scoring on their final two possessions to squeak out of a dramatic comeback win. Niners 1-7 SU but have had a chance to win in the fourth quarter in all of their games, except when they played the Rams. They're a well-coached team and will be up for cross-town rival this week, posting a 3-1 ATS in last four home meetings versus Raiders. After a couple of dreadful performances following lone win of season, Oakland actually proved competitive against Indy at home last week before getting blitzed 21-0 in fourth quarter. Players still trying but head coach and management have other motives – tanking so they can pick own QB with first pick (presumably). Oakland isn’t good running the ball (28th) or stopping the run (allowed Colts’ no-name RBs to gain 222 yards last week) and are 0-3 ATS since beating the Browns. Huge coaching mismatch and manageable spread against terrible road team (Oakland 2-7-1 ATS in last 10 away). Lay the points!
Week 9 NFL Free Picks – Bet San Francisco -3 over Oakland!
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +6.5 vs CAROLINA PANTHERS (Sunday 1:00 ET)
Tampa Bay (+6.5) putting up historic numbers with passing game, averaging 376 yards per game (316 second-best), and they’ve played divisional rivals tough during Dirk Koettner’s 2 ½-year reign, covering both games at Carolina and recording a 4-1 ATS in last five divisional games. Fitzpatrick gave team a shot in the arm following four interceptions from Winston and look for the Bucs offense to put pressure on Carolina, who can’t afford to be lackadaisical following a pair of emotional underdog wins over Philadelphia (erased 17-0 deficit) and Baltimore (jumped out to 24-7 halftime lead and cruised rest of the way). Panthers 2-5 ATS in last seven games after covering two straight and remain a relatively low-scoring team (25th-ranked) that likes to grind it out on the ground. Tampa tends to come up a little short at the end, with three-of-four losses coming by five points or less, and while the defense stinks, Bucs will score enough to cover a big number.
Week 9 NFL Free Picks – Bet Tampa Bay +6.5 over Carolina!
New York Jets +3.0 vs MIAMI DOLPHINS (Sunday 1:00 ET)
New York (+3) has dropped two straight versus playoff-caliber teams but poised to rebound against injury-riddled Dolphins. Jets’ defense kept them in the game last week but offense couldn’t get anything going against Chicago defense, recording only 207 total yards including 57 rushing. QB Darnold will get back on track versus Miami, who are a putrid 4-8-2 ATS in their last 14 games when favored by three or more points. This is a different Dolphins team from Week 2 (when Miami won 20-12 at New York) due to injuries. QB Tannehill trying to make it back from shoulder injury but has few capable receivers to throw to if he does, with Kenny Stills and Albert Wilson sidelined. Miami’s defense a true MASH unit that can’t be counted upon, surrendering 28 second half points to Houston last week and slipping to last in the NFL against run by allowing 143 yards per game. New York 6-2-2 ATS in last 10 meetings, with a 4-1-2 ATS mark at Miami, and expecting a straight up Jets win.
Week 9 NFL Free Picks – Bet New York Jets +3 over Miami!
L.A. Rams +1.5 vs NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (Sunday 4:25 ET)
L.A. Rams (1.5) received a scare from the Packers before prevailing at home and the NFL’s lone remaining unbeaten team has failed to cover three of the last four. However, Rams starting to get healthy after being banged-up in previous weeks and face a defense that won’t be able to slow their high-powered attack. Los Angeles ranks second in yards per game (442) and points per game (22), and a talented defensive front makes it difficult for teams to swap points with them. New Orleans has won six straight since being outscored by Tampa at home but only the last two have come against probable playoff teams. And they’ve been fortunate those opponents (Baltimore and Minnesota) are incapable of running the ball effectively. After avoiding OT due to a missed extra point at Baltimore, New Orleans lucky to prevail at Minny last week as the Vikings moved the ball up-and-down the field against a poor-playing secondary (Saints 23rd-ranked versus pass) but lost due to three turnovers. And while Drew Brees and the offense playing at a high level, Saints could be worn down after a couple of tough road slugfests. Rams QB Jared Goff capable of a field day and RB Todd Gurley easily leads the league rushing. Rams will show everybody Sunday afternoon why they’re the Super Bowl favorites.
Week 9 NFL Free Picks – Bet L.A. Rams +1.5 over New Orleans!
Green Bay Packers +5.5 vs NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (Sunday 8:20 ET)
New England (-5.5) went through the motions on Monday night in advance of anticipated home test, looking slow and old on both sides of the ball as the offense couldn’t score TDs and the defense allowed an anemic Bills offense to score some points. But we’ve seen this repeatedly in the past before a return to form and Patriots held out seven players, including top defensive player LB Hightower and RB Michel, who are expected back this week. Belichek will use last week as motivation and have the troops well-prepared, and Brady playing at a high level averaging more than 300 yards passing per game in October. Green Bay traded away a key defensive back (three interceptions for Clinton-Dix) and a RB in exchange for draft picks, peculiar moves for a team in the thick of divisional race, and face a difficult cross-country trip after coughing up a fourth quarter lead against the Rams. Rogers (13 touchdowns, one interception this year) playing at a high level and Green Bay has fared well against the Pats (4-1 ATS last five, 3-0 ATS last three in Foxboro), but they can’t run the ball effectively and have been known to struggle in the second of back-to-back road games, posting a 1-6 ATS record. New England has covered four of their last five games and enjoy playing at home on Sunday night, handing Kansas City their lone loss earlier this season. Pats will prove too much for the Pack in an expected double-digit win!
Week 9 NFL Free Picks – Bet New England -5.5 over Green Bay!
*ATS (Against the Spread) / SU (Straight Up) * PK indicates pick *home team in caps
Oakland Raiders +3.0 vs SAN FRANCISCO FORTY NINERS (Thursday 8:20 ET)
After dominating for three quarters, San Francisco (-3) let last week’s game slip away as the offense bogged down in the second half and put too much pressure on the defense, with Arizona scoring on their final two possessions to squeak out of a dramatic comeback win. Niners 1-7 SU but have had a chance to win in the fourth quarter in all of their games, except when they played the Rams. They're a well-coached team and will be up for cross-town rival this week, posting a 3-1 ATS in last four home meetings versus Raiders. After a couple of dreadful performances following lone win of season, Oakland actually proved competitive against Indy at home last week before getting blitzed 21-0 in fourth quarter. Players still trying but head coach and management have other motives – tanking so they can pick own QB with first pick (presumably). Oakland isn’t good running the ball (28th) or stopping the run (allowed Colts’ no-name RBs to gain 222 yards last week) and are 0-3 ATS since beating the Browns. Huge coaching mismatch and manageable spread against terrible road team (Oakland 2-7-1 ATS in last 10 away). Lay the points!
Week 9 NFL Free Picks – Bet San Francisco -3 over Oakland!
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +6.5 vs CAROLINA PANTHERS (Sunday 1:00 ET)
Tampa Bay (+6.5) putting up historic numbers with passing game, averaging 376 yards per game (316 second-best), and they’ve played divisional rivals tough during Dirk Koettner’s 2 ½-year reign, covering both games at Carolina and recording a 4-1 ATS in last five divisional games. Fitzpatrick gave team a shot in the arm following four interceptions from Winston and look for the Bucs offense to put pressure on Carolina, who can’t afford to be lackadaisical following a pair of emotional underdog wins over Philadelphia (erased 17-0 deficit) and Baltimore (jumped out to 24-7 halftime lead and cruised rest of the way). Panthers 2-5 ATS in last seven games after covering two straight and remain a relatively low-scoring team (25th-ranked) that likes to grind it out on the ground. Tampa tends to come up a little short at the end, with three-of-four losses coming by five points or less, and while the defense stinks, Bucs will score enough to cover a big number.
Week 9 NFL Free Picks – Bet Tampa Bay +6.5 over Carolina!
New York Jets +3.0 vs MIAMI DOLPHINS (Sunday 1:00 ET)
New York (+3) has dropped two straight versus playoff-caliber teams but poised to rebound against injury-riddled Dolphins. Jets’ defense kept them in the game last week but offense couldn’t get anything going against Chicago defense, recording only 207 total yards including 57 rushing. QB Darnold will get back on track versus Miami, who are a putrid 4-8-2 ATS in their last 14 games when favored by three or more points. This is a different Dolphins team from Week 2 (when Miami won 20-12 at New York) due to injuries. QB Tannehill trying to make it back from shoulder injury but has few capable receivers to throw to if he does, with Kenny Stills and Albert Wilson sidelined. Miami’s defense a true MASH unit that can’t be counted upon, surrendering 28 second half points to Houston last week and slipping to last in the NFL against run by allowing 143 yards per game. New York 6-2-2 ATS in last 10 meetings, with a 4-1-2 ATS mark at Miami, and expecting a straight up Jets win.
Week 9 NFL Free Picks – Bet New York Jets +3 over Miami!
L.A. Rams +1.5 vs NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (Sunday 4:25 ET)
L.A. Rams (1.5) received a scare from the Packers before prevailing at home and the NFL’s lone remaining unbeaten team has failed to cover three of the last four. However, Rams starting to get healthy after being banged-up in previous weeks and face a defense that won’t be able to slow their high-powered attack. Los Angeles ranks second in yards per game (442) and points per game (22), and a talented defensive front makes it difficult for teams to swap points with them. New Orleans has won six straight since being outscored by Tampa at home but only the last two have come against probable playoff teams. And they’ve been fortunate those opponents (Baltimore and Minnesota) are incapable of running the ball effectively. After avoiding OT due to a missed extra point at Baltimore, New Orleans lucky to prevail at Minny last week as the Vikings moved the ball up-and-down the field against a poor-playing secondary (Saints 23rd-ranked versus pass) but lost due to three turnovers. And while Drew Brees and the offense playing at a high level, Saints could be worn down after a couple of tough road slugfests. Rams QB Jared Goff capable of a field day and RB Todd Gurley easily leads the league rushing. Rams will show everybody Sunday afternoon why they’re the Super Bowl favorites.
Week 9 NFL Free Picks – Bet L.A. Rams +1.5 over New Orleans!
Green Bay Packers +5.5 vs NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (Sunday 8:20 ET)
New England (-5.5) went through the motions on Monday night in advance of anticipated home test, looking slow and old on both sides of the ball as the offense couldn’t score TDs and the defense allowed an anemic Bills offense to score some points. But we’ve seen this repeatedly in the past before a return to form and Patriots held out seven players, including top defensive player LB Hightower and RB Michel, who are expected back this week. Belichek will use last week as motivation and have the troops well-prepared, and Brady playing at a high level averaging more than 300 yards passing per game in October. Green Bay traded away a key defensive back (three interceptions for Clinton-Dix) and a RB in exchange for draft picks, peculiar moves for a team in the thick of divisional race, and face a difficult cross-country trip after coughing up a fourth quarter lead against the Rams. Rogers (13 touchdowns, one interception this year) playing at a high level and Green Bay has fared well against the Pats (4-1 ATS last five, 3-0 ATS last three in Foxboro), but they can’t run the ball effectively and have been known to struggle in the second of back-to-back road games, posting a 1-6 ATS record. New England has covered four of their last five games and enjoy playing at home on Sunday night, handing Kansas City their lone loss earlier this season. Pats will prove too much for the Pack in an expected double-digit win!
Week 9 NFL Free Picks – Bet New England -5.5 over Green Bay!
James Scully is a professional handicapper who hails from the great state of Ohio. You can follow him on Twitter @JamesScully.
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