Super Bowl LX Pick: Stout defenses put premium on offensive production

The Seahawks entered the season with a projected win total of 8.5 and the 12th-best odds to make the postseason in the NFC (+170). The Patriots were listed at +7500 to win the Super Bowl in the preseason. Nobody predicted this matchup beforehand, but Seattle and New England established themselves as serious contenders by midseason, and both entered the postseason with a 14-3 record.

High-scoring, close Super Bowls produce memories; a recent stretch featured three consecutive Super Bowls decided by a field goal (Super Bowls LVI, LVII, and LVIII). But many Super Bowls aren’t as competitive, with 35 of 59 champions winning by double digits. YouBet.com provides analysis and a pick for the big game below, line courtesy of BetMGM.

Analysis

Don’t remember a Super Bowl team facing three injury-riddled offensive units during a playoff run, as the Chargers, Texans, and Broncos all appeared far below full strength. Despite opportune circumstances, the Patriots have struggled at times due to offensive line woes. It’s been an issue during the postseason, with Drake Maye fortunate to lose only two of six fumbles against the first two opponents (Chargers and Texans) before a disappointing performance in the AFC Championship. The Patriots' lone touchdown resulted from Denver’s back-up quarterback fumbling in the shadow of his end zone, accumulating only 206 total yards against a Broncos defense that had been shredded a week earlier, surrendering 449 total yards, including nearly 300 passing yards, in the divisional round. Maye completed only 10 of 21 passes for 86 yards. The weather was a factor in the second half, but the Patriots had five punts and a missed field goal during ideal first-half conditions.

Unlike their counterpart, the Seahawks are battle-tested, defeating the Rams twice in the last five games, and their offense is firing on all cylinders. They’ve been dominant offensively, winning nine consecutive games, scoring 77 points in a pair of playoff games, and the Seahawks match up well defensively against any team outside of the Rams, ranking first in scoring defense and third in run defense. They’ll gameplan to stop the run, forcing Maye to beat them with his arm. 

Must respect Mike Vrabel and the Patriots’ defensive unit; they will try to force a low-scoring game up for grabs in the fourth quarter, but it won’t be enough. Expect the Seahawks to control nearly every facet of the game, keeping the Patriots' offense mostly in check. Jaxon Smith-Njigba will be the best player on the field, and the Patriots won’t slow him or the Seahawks scoring production.

Expert Pick: Seahawks -4.5