Texans vs. Titans: NFL Week 11 betting odds, preview, and pick

One of the bigger mismatches on paper in Week 11 of the NFL season is the AFC South showdown between the Houston Texans and the Tennessee Titans.

The Texans are winless since beating the woeful Jacksonville Jaguars in their first game of the season, while the Titans are emerging as the class of their conference with recent victories over the Buffalo Bills, Kansas City Chiefs, Los Angeles Rams, and New Orleans Saints.

But can Tennessee cover the sizable spread oddsmakers have assigned them? Let’s dive into the matchup and start figuring out the answer.

Houston Texans (1-8) at Tennessee Titans (8-2), 1:00 p.m. ET, CBS

Despite the wins, Henry’s absence is sorely felt

There’s a temptation to say “Derrick Henry who?” after the Titans’ back-to-back victories over winning teams since their star tailback was injured, but don’t be fooled. Tennessee has tallied just 135 rushing yards without Henry, and only 458 total yards of offense.

The Titans have been opportunists over the last two weeks, making the right plays at just the right time. The most noteworthy example is probably the gift interception Rams quarterback Matt Stafford offered Tennessee’s stoppers in Week 9.

Ryan Tannehill and company will either have to step up their game, or play pretty much perfectly to cover a double-digit spread in this spot. 

The Texans’ offense is terrible

Whether it’s Tyrod Taylor or Davis Mills under center, there’s no sugarcoating how awful Houston’s offense has been in 2021.

The Texans are averaging an NFL-worst 14.2 points per game through Week 10, and are last in the league in yards per game as well (280.1). They’ve been held to fewer than 10 points in five of their last eight games, all losses.

Houston’s running game has been particularly sluggish, ranking 31st by yards per contest (75.8). That number is likely to decline here, as the Texans are without Mark Ingram for a second straight tilt since trading him to the Saints. The Titans are also seventh in football in stopping the run (98.6 yards allowed per game).

Texans vs. Titans injury report

Texans and Titans betting trends

• The Texans are 6-15 ATS in their last 21 road games against teams with a winning home record
• The Titans are 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall
• The Under is 5-2 in the Texans’ last seven games overall
• The Over is 8-2 in the Titans’ last 10 games against AFC South opponents

The verdict

It’s difficult to lay 10 points with the Titans’ stunted offense, but the Texans’ attackers are even worse. The best bet here is to take the Under.

Score prediction: Titans 20, Texans 13

NFL pick: Under 45