The NFL's least reliable ATS teams over the last 5 years
Cleveland Browns quarterback Baker Mayfield (left) rolls out of the pocket as Los Angeles Rams linebacker Dante Fowler Jr. applies pressure. (Photo by Frank Jansky/Icon Sportswire)
March 16th, 2020
The NFL just signed a CBA through 2030, which means we will have football without the disruption of a labor disagreement for the next 10 years!
Let's look at the five worst teams against the spread over the last five years, to help you get a jump-start on the 2020 season.
5. Atlanta Falcons (39-46 ATS)
This one may come as a bit of a surprise, considering the Falcons have made a Super Bowl and never finished worse than 7-9 in the past five years. However, when it comes to the spread, this team is always mediocre to bad.
The Falcons live and die in close games, and they struggle as a favorite. They are 21-31 ATS as a favorite and 6-11 ATS as a road favorite. This ranks in the bottom seven in the league in both categories.
“The Atlanta Falcons won’t choke a 28-3 lead in the biggest game in their franchise history” https://t.co/BPou6I62An pic.twitter.com/lymH2r8ps0
— brandon (@JetsHateMe) March 15, 2020
4. Houston Texans (38-45-3 ATS)
If the Falcons surprised you, then this one will blow your mind. The Texans made the playoffs in four of the past five seasons. However, their overall record was 45-41 in that time span.
They have not finished a season with a winning record ATS since 2015. Their Achilles heel is as an underdog. The Texans are 20-26 ATS the past five seasons when they are an underdog. That is the third worst record in the league in this category.
Quick recap of the Texans-Chiefs game pic.twitter.com/gkjCSZXfUr
— NFL Memes (@NFL_Memes) January 15, 2020
3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (34-41-5 ATS)
The Bucs have an overall record of 32-48 and have not made the playoffs over the past five seasons.
This team falters against the spread is at home. The Buccaneers are 14-23-2 ATS at home and a league-worst 6-15-1 ATS as a home favorite since 2015. They are also 9-16-1 ATS as a favorite in the last five years.
This all may change if Tom Brady comes to town next season.
Free Agent QB Jameis Winston led the NFL with 30 interceptions.
— QB Data Mine (@QBDataMine) March 16, 2020
He had 21 more interceptions dropped: pic.twitter.com/LEAhrBHljj
2. San Francisco 49ers (36-45-2 ATS)
The 49ers are fresh off an NFC Championship and a league-best 13-3 record in the regular season. That tells you how bad they were before. In 2016 they went 4-11-1 ATS, and in 2018 they went 5-11.
The Niners are a league-worst 7-14-1 ATS as a favorite in the past five seasons. In 2019 they went 6-6-1 ATS as a favorite. That means they were 1-8 ATS as a favorite in the previous four seasons! This is a new team, and you should not automatically bet against them, but it is worth noting—even in a great season they were still only .500 ATS as a favorite.
1. Cleveland Browns (29-50-1 ATS)
In the least surprising news ever, the Cleveland Browns top this list. It is not even close. The 7.7% difference from last to next to last is equal to the distance between the best team ATS and the fifth-best team ATS, or the difference between the second-worst team ATS and the seventh best team ATS over the past five seasons!
There is no one category that stands out, because they are bad in all categories. Until they make some major organizational changes, they are an excellent team to bet against constantly against the spread.
Most Browns thing ever. Baker Mayfield runs for a first down on 4th and 2 but fumbles and the ball bounces backward behind the first down marker for a turnover on downs. pic.twitter.com/aUHLAthkuW
— Will Brinson (@WillBrinson) October 21, 2018
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